IBM Z mainframes · Red Hat hybrid cloud
IBM
IBM holds the 'trust layer' of enterprise IT — a large share of the world's high-value transactions runs on IBM Z mainframes, and the hybrid backbone enterprises use to avoid single-cloud lock-in (Red Hat) is IBM's. After a lost decade, its re-rating (2024 +39%, 2025 +38%) rides three converging engines — the z17 mainframe upgrade cycle, Red Hat-led software acceleration, and a >$12.5B gen-AI book. FY2025 revenue was $67.5B (+8%, best in nearly a decade) with $14.7B of free cash flow, which it recycles into software acquisitions (HashiCorp and others) to reshape the mix. But it only designs its chips — Samsung Foundry makes them and its AI compute rides NVIDIA — so IBM sits above the silicon, dependent on both.
IBM Updated Sep 11, 2026 5 AI consumers· 3 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, IBM is directly linked to 3 companies (3 supply, 0 revenue relationships) and reaches 100 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 10 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-09-11).
Annual return · 2026-09-04'21+16.7%'22+10.6%'23+21.8%'24+39.3%'25+38.2%YTD-19.1%
Money in ▸기업 (z17 메인프레임·왓슨x)●양자 생태계 (스탈링 로드맵)◐
IBMRevenue $67.5B
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · Revenue $67.5B (FY2025, +8% — best in nearly a decade), net income $10.59B, diluted EPS $11.17, FCF $14.73B. The year the mix tilted from cyclical hardware to recurring software.
- Customer concentration · Profit and the re-rating come from a growing software (high-margin, recurring) mix, the mainframe cycle, and $14.7B of free cash flow. Upside is converting the >$12.5B gen-AI book into software; downside is Consulting's macro drag. Its chips depend on Samsung Foundry and its AI compute on NVIDIA.
- Segments · Software - Red Hat, automation, Data & AI (watsonx) · Infrastructure - IBM Z mainframe (z17), Power, storage · Consulting - hybrid cloud, business transformation
Revenue from
- 기업 (z17 메인프레임·왓슨x) High confidence
IBM Z mainframes process a large share of the world's high-value transactions (banking, airlines, retail) — a switching-cost-locked, captive install base. The z17/Telum II upgrade cycle (IBM Z +59% at launch) monetizes that base every few years, and Red Hat and watsonx layer recurring revenue on top. FY2025 revenue $67.5B (+8%) with a >$12.5B gen-AI book — the mix is tilting from cyclical hardware to recurring software.Confirms EN Blocks and Files Published Oct 24, 2025: IBM rides mainframe and AI wave to strongest growth in years - 양자 생태계 (스탈링 로드맵) Medium confidence
IBM's Starling roadmap (large-scale fault-tolerant quantum by 2029) is a long-dated option — it sells cloud quantum access via IBM Quantum and positions as the enterprise on-ramp. IonQ and Rigetti are rivals, not customers, so this edge is the ecosystem/demand axis, not a supplier link (no cpid).Mentions EN Blocks and Files Published Oct 24, 2025: IBM rides mainframe and AI wave to strongest growth in years
Pays to
- Samsung Electronics (foundry — Telum/Power fabrication) High confidence
IBM designs Telum/Power but fabricates nothing itself — Samsung Foundry makes Telum II on 5nm (600mm2, 43bn transistors) and Telum/Power10 on 7nm EUV, a 10+-year partnership. It followed IBM's 2015 exit from its own fabs (sold to GlobalFoundries, then litigation over GF's failed 7nm handoff, settled 2024) and the move of leading-edge chips to Samsung — so the z17 cycle rides Samsung yields.Confirms KO ZDNet Korea Published Dec 16, 2021: Samsung Foundry wins Qualcomm, IBM, Google, ST — makes IBM's Power10 (7nm)/Power11 (5nm) server CPUs - NVIDIA (AI compute — watsonx, IBM Cloud) Medium confidence
IBM sells the enterprise-AI 'layer' but buys the compute beneath it from NVIDIA — watsonx.data's Presto engine is accelerated by NVIDIA cuDF/GPUs (a Nestle test showed 30x price-performance), and the two expanded their collaboration at GTC 2026. watsonx economics ride NVIDIA silicon, so scaling the AI book deepens dependence on NVIDIA compute. - Adobe Inc. Medium confidence
IBM built a unified foundation for authoring, governing, and publishing its large technical-content estate with Adobe Experience Manager Guides, while the customer-specific contract value is not disclosed.Confirms EN Adobe Published Aug 3, 2026: 20 Million Pages, 1,000 Authors: IBM Drives Content at Scale
Investments
- Red Hat (2019 acquisition, $34B) High confidence
The $34B 2019 Red Hat acquisition is the pivot that turned IBM from declining hardware/services to hybrid-cloud software — OpenShift (ARR +30%+) is the software growth engine, and multi-cloud neutrality ('locked to no single cloud') became IBM's moat, the foundation for its later software roll-up. - HashiCorp (2025 acquisition, $6.4B) High confidence
The $6.4B February 2025 HashiCorp (Terraform, Vault) acquisition extends Red Hat into infrastructure automation and secrets management — following Apptio, Turbonomic and StreamSets, a deliberate roll-up that uses free cash flow to buy recurring-revenue software and lift the group mix toward software.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM | node | +16.7 | +10.6 | +21.8 | +39.3 | +38.2 | -19.1 |
| Samsung Electronics | benef1 | -9 | -14.2 | +20.9 | -26.4 | +212.9 | +59.7 |
| NVIDIA | benef1 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +23.7 |
| Adobe Inc. | benef1 | +13.4 | -40.7 | +77.3 | -25.5 | -21.3 | -23.9 |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | benef2 | -11.8 | -18.5 | -1.4 | -2.5 | +110 | +402.2 |
| Jusung Engineering | benef2 | +127.9 | -42.6 | +173.3 | -3.1 | +30.7 | +331.2 |
| Micron Technology | benef2 | +24.2 | -45.9 | +71.9 | -1 | +240.2 | +256.4 |
| Nebius Group | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +202.2 | +170.5 |
| Kioxia | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +1082.1 | +155 |
| MediaTek | benef2 | +27.8 | -26.6 | +52.9 | +58.3 | +24.9 | +152.4 |
| Ibiden | benef2 | +30.4 | -19.6 | +51.6 | -38.6 | +261 | +149.3 |
| Lumentum | benef2 | +11.6 | -50.7 | +0.5 | +60.1 | +339.1 | +139.1 |
| Unimicron | benef2 | +133.5 | -30.2 | +35.2 | -19.7 | +175.7 | +138.8 |
| ASE Technology | benef2 | +38.3 | -12.8 | +60.9 | +10.1 | +65.6 | +135.3 |
| Murata Manufacturing | benef2 | -14 | -11.7 | +24.7 | -16.5 | +29.9 | +131.5 |
| LG Innotek | benef2 | +78.2 | -22 | -28.8 | -22.1 | +66.8 | +130.7 |
| Cohu | benef2 | -0.2 | -15.9 | +10.4 | -24.6 | -12.8 | +118 |
| PSK Inc | benef2 | +22.7 | -19.6 | +14.2 | -2.6 | +228.2 | +105.7 |
| SUMCO Corporation | benef2 | -4.3 | -3.9 | +21.3 | -48.1 | +41.7 | +100.6 |
| GlobalWafers | benef2 | +26.9 | -29.9 | +14.3 | -39 | +48.9 | +98.1 |
| Simmtech | benef2 | +119.6 | -34.6 | +12.4 | -63.3 | +392.9 | +94.9 |
| Astera Labs | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +25.6 | +86.6 |
| FormFactor | benef2 | +6.3 | -51.4 | +87.6 | +5.5 | +26.8 | +86.3 |
| Teradyne | benef2 | +36.8 | -46.3 | +24.8 | +16.5 | +54.4 | +84.6 |
| SK hynix | benef2 | -0.4 | -25.6 | +53.9 | +48.6 | +361.1 | +81.6 |
| Lam Research | benef2 | +53.7 | -40.7 | +88.6 | -6.8 | +139.2 | +80.1 |
| Applied Materials | benef2 | +83.6 | -37.5 | +68 | +1.1 | +59.6 | +77.6 |
| Resonac | benef2 | -2.6 | -4 | +37.5 | +30.3 | +137.9 | +73.5 |
| Onto Innovation | benef2 | +112.9 | -32.7 | +124.6 | +9 | -5.3 | +69.8 |
| Entegris | benef2 | +44.6 | -52.5 | +83.5 | -17.1 | -14.6 | +65.1 |
| ASML | benef2 | +64.1 | -30.5 | +39.9 | -7.7 | +55.8 | +61.1 |
| Keysight Technologies | benef2 | +56.3 | -17.2 | -7 | +1 | +26.5 | +61 |
| Daeduck Electronics | benef2 | +64.2 | -0.3 | +13.3 | -22.7 | +250.2 | +58.1 |
| Wistron | benef2 | +7.9 | +9.7 | +272.7 | -1.6 | +22.7 | +57.3 |
| ASMPT | benef2 | -29 | -12.4 | +21.8 | -4.8 | +47.6 | +54.5 |
| KLA | benef2 | +68 | -11.2 | +56 | +9.4 | +94.5 | +53.3 |
| Coherent | benef2 | -10 | -48.6 | +24 | +117.6 | +94.8 | +52.7 |
| Delta Electronics | benef2 | -3.4 | +10.4 | -0.3 | +59.2 | +183.8 | +50.4 |
| Samsung E&A | benef2 | +74.5 | +20 | -13.7 | -15.9 | +76.7 | +48.9 |
| Qnity Electronics | benef2 | · | · | · | · | · | +47.8 |
| Foosung | benef2 | +59.9 | -33.5 | -34.5 | -39.1 | +67.4 | +47.6 |
| KC Tech | benef2 | -24.2 | -6.1 | +57.9 | +5.9 | +56.7 | +45.5 |
| Pegatron | benef2 | -5.9 | +0.6 | +35.3 | +21.2 | -23.8 | +43 |
| Arteris | benef2 | · | -79.6 | +37 | +73 | +52.1 | +37.9 |
| onsemi | benef2 | +107.5 | -8.2 | +33.9 | -24.5 | -14.1 | +37.4 |
| Camtek | benef2 | +110.1 | -52.3 | +215.9 | +18.3 | +31.7 | +37 |
| Monolithic Power | benef2 | +35.5 | -27.8 | +79.8 | -5.6 | +54.5 | +35.5 |
| Analog Devices | benef2 | +21 | -4.9 | +23.4 | +8.8 | +29.8 | +34.8 |
| SCREEN Holdings | benef2 | +40.7 | -13.2 | +220.1 | -24.1 | +84.9 | +33.7 |
| Tokyo Electron (TEL) | benef2 | +40.4 | -14.5 | +89.8 | -4.4 | +61.6 | +30.3 |
| Kokusai Electric | benef2 | · | · | · | -35.4 | +165.3 | +30.1 |
| Eoptolink | benef2 | -10.1 | -27.7 | +136.6 | +197 | +368.8 | +29.1 |
| Sumitomo Chemical | benef2 | +19.6 | -9.1 | -27.7 | -2.2 | +43.9 | +28.4 |
| InnoLight | benef2 | -30.7 | -18.3 | +253.7 | +12 | +468.1 | +25.6 |
| Air Products and Chemicals | benef2 | +13.8 | +3.9 | -9 | +8.1 | -12.7 | +24.4 |
| Fujimi Incorporated | benef2 | +64.7 | -1.6 | +40.4 | -24.2 | +28.4 | +23.4 |
| Digital Realty | benef2 | +30.7 | -41 | +39.9 | +35.9 | -10.1 | +23.4 |
| Eugene Technology | benef2 | +28.1 | -45.1 | +64.1 | -12.6 | +202.5 | +23.2 |
| Amphenol | benef2 | +34.4 | -12.5 | +30.8 | +40.7 | +95.3 | +22.7 |
| Qorvo | benef2 | -5.9 | -42 | +24.2 | -37.9 | +20.8 | +21.7 |
| Air Liquide | benef2 | +14.3 | +8.1 | +21.1 | +8.7 | -4.6 | +21.3 |
| ISC | benef2 | +43.2 | +14.2 | +116.5 | -11.9 | +126.8 | +20.8 |
| BESI | benef2 | +33.7 | -6.1 | +121.8 | -9.3 | +35 | +20.3 |
| ABB | benef2 | +23.9 | +7.3 | +18.9 | +39 | +36.1 | +18.4 |
| EO Technics | benef2 | +7.6 | -28.2 | +130.5 | -16.2 | +163.2 | +17.8 |
| ASM International | benef2 | +44.2 | +2.9 | +68.7 | +10.3 | +25.9 | +16.7 |
| Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (TOK) | benef2 | -2.7 | -3 | +63.8 | +4.3 | +111.5 | +14.1 |
| Shin-Etsu Chemical | benef2 | +6.3 | +3.1 | +57.8 | -15.6 | +7.6 | +13.8 |
| Linde | benef2 | +33.4 | -4.4 | +27.7 | +3.2 | +3.2 | +13.1 |
| Nepes | benef2 | -29.5 | -44 | +6.7 | -62.7 | +179.2 | +12.5 |
| Amazon | benef2 | +2.4 | -49.6 | +80.9 | +44.4 | +5.2 | +12 |
| Powertech Technology (PTI) | benef2 | +4.8 | -7.5 | +86 | -16 | +128.6 | +11 |
| Merck KGaA (EMD) | benef2 | +42.2 | -0.4 | -19.1 | -2.5 | -12.7 | +10.4 |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | benef2 | +98.5 | -21.7 | +313.1 | +93.7 | +87.9 | +9.3 |
| HPSP | benef2 | · | · | +216.5 | -30.4 | +54.7 | +9.2 |
| BlackRock | benef2 | +29.4 | -20.4 | +17.9 | +29.3 | +6.6 | +6 |
| Luxshare Precision | benef2 | -11.9 | -30.2 | -21.2 | +58.8 | +29.3 | +5.6 |
| Montage Technology | benef2 | -18.2 | -21.8 | -18 | +51.4 | +169 | +3.4 |
| Wonik IPS | benef2 | -19.7 | -19.8 | -0.2 | -25.5 | +408.8 | +0.3 |
| Ebara | benef2 | +58.1 | +2.3 | +76.1 | +41 | +84 | -4.2 |
| TE Connectivity | benef2 | +35.1 | -27.7 | +24.6 | +3.5 | +61.1 | -7.3 |
| Lasertec | benef2 | +78.9 | +2.4 | +57 | -60.6 | +138.9 | -8.5 |
| Photronics | benef2 | +68.9 | -10.7 | +86.4 | -24.9 | +35.8 | -9 |
| Wonik QnC | benef2 | +26.2 | +2 | +11.9 | -33.7 | +53.4 | -9.6 |
| Recursion Pharmaceuticals | benef2 | · | -55 | +27.9 | -31.4 | -39.5 | -11.2 |
| Park Systems | benef2 | +25.1 | +1.6 | +41.6 | +37.3 | +28.9 | -13.5 |
| Disco Corporation | benef2 | -6.6 | +27.7 | +218.5 | +11.6 | +49.6 | -17.3 |
| Uni Test | benef2 | +23.4 | -57.8 | +11.3 | -1.6 | +6.8 | -21.4 |
| LG Display | benef2 | -6.8 | -30.9 | -8.5 | -20.6 | +26.2 | -21.8 |
| BYD Electronics | benef2 | -56.1 | +16 | -0.4 | +60.6 | -19.4 | -24.1 |
| Hana Materials | benef2 | +106 | -30.5 | +26.1 | -47.4 | +173.9 | -25.4 |
| Dongjin Semichem | benef2 | +28.1 | -13.7 | +16.1 | -42.8 | +160.1 | -28.1 |
| SFA Semicon | benef2 | -5.8 | -34.1 | +48.7 | -48.7 | +139.8 | -28.4 |
| ENF Technology | benef2 | -32.9 | -23.6 | +1.3 | -16.1 | +204.6 | -28.8 |
| Soulbrain | benef2 | -8.2 | -3.9 | +16.6 | -37.6 | +192.8 | -33.1 |
| Leeno Industrial | benef2 | +21 | -5.3 | +18.3 | +9.5 | +150.1 | -37.1 |
| S&S Tech | benef2 | -17.3 | -5 | +45.8 | -31.2 | +210.8 | -56 |
YTD as of 2026-09-04 · source: Yahoo Finance
IBM operates across S&P 500, mainframe & hybrid cloud. After +38.2% in 2025, it corrected -19.1% in 2026. The supply side (avg +41.7%) leads the stock (-19.1%), with spending rippling down to suppliers first. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is Samsung Electronics (+59.7%) and the furthest behind is NVIDIA (+23.7%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. But it only designs its chips — Samsung Foundry makes them and its AI compute rides NVIDIA — so IBM sits above the silicon, dependent on both.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04