{"slug":"ibm","name":"IBM","name_en":"IBM","ticker":"IBM","updated_at":"2026-07-12T03:46:37.481+00:00","canonical":"https://valuechain.wiki/ibm","citable":"밸류체인 그래프 기준 IBM의 직접 연결 기업은 2곳(관계 기준 공급 2·매출 0)이고, 사슬을 2차까지 넓히면 98곳에 닿는다. 링크의 근거 출처는 9건이며 그중 1차공시가 2건이다 (valuechain.wiki, 2026-07-12 기준).","citable_en":"Per the valuechain.wiki graph, IBM is directly linked to 2 companies (2 supply, 0 revenue relationships) and reaches 98 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 9 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).","kicker":"S&P 500 · 메인프레임·하이브리드 클라우드","kicker_en":"S&P 500 · mainframe & hybrid cloud","lead":"IBM은 기업 IT의 '신뢰 계층'을 쥔 노장이다 — 세계 고가치 거래의 상당 부분이 IBM Z 메인프레임에서 처리되고, 기업들이 단일 클라우드 종속을 피하려 쓰는 하이브리드 백본(Red Hat)이 IBM 것이다. 잃어버린 10년 뒤 재평가(2024 +39%·2025 +38%)의 동력은 세 가지가 겹친 것 — z17 메인프레임 업그레이드 사이클, Red Hat이 이끄는 소프트웨어 가속, $125억+ 생성형 AI 수주. FY2025 매출 $675억(+8%, 근 10년 최고)·잉여현금흐름 $147억이 그 현금으로 소프트웨어 인수(HashiCorp 등)를 돌려 믹스를 바꾼다. 다만 칩은 설계만 하고 삼성 파운드리가 만들며 AI 컴퓨트는 엔비디아에 얹혀 있어, IBM은 실리콘 위층에 앉아 그 둘에 의존한다.","lead_en":"IBM holds the 'trust layer' of enterprise IT — a large share of the world's high-value transactions runs on IBM Z mainframes, and the hybrid backbone enterprises use to avoid single-cloud lock-in (Red Hat) is IBM's. After a lost decade, its re-rating (2024 +39%, 2025 +38%) rides three converging engines — the z17 mainframe upgrade cycle, Red Hat-led software acceleration, and a >$12.5B gen-AI book. FY2025 revenue was $67.5B (+8%, best in nearly a decade) with $14.7B of free cash flow, which it recycles into software acquisitions (HashiCorp and others) to reshape the mix. But it only designs its chips — Samsung Foundry makes them and its AI compute rides NVIDIA — so IBM sits above the silicon, dependent on both.","segments":{"fy":2025,"parts":[{"desc":"$299.6억(+10.6%). Red Hat(OpenShift ARR +30%+)이 가속하는 반복매출 엔진 — IBM 재평가의 핵심이자 HashiCorp 등 인수로 믹스를 키우는 축.","name":"소프트웨어 — Red Hat·자동화·데이터&AI(watsonx)"},{"desc":"$157.2억(+12.1%). z17/텔럼 II 업그레이드 사이클이 견인 — 캡티브 설치기반을 수년마다 현금화하나 사이클성이라 진폭이 크다.","name":"인프라 — z 메인프레임(z17)·파워·스토리지"},{"desc":"$210.6억(+1.8%). 거시 IT 지출 압박으로 성장 정체 — 생성형 AI 수주가 회복 신호이나 재량예산 회복에 좌우.","name":"컨설팅 — 하이브리드 클라우드·비즈니스 전환"}],"total":"매출 $675억(FY2025, +8% — 근 10년 최고)·순이익 $105.9억·희석EPS $11.17·잉여현금흐름 $147억. 사이클성 하드웨어에서 반복성 소프트웨어로 믹스가 기운 해.","concentration":"이익·재평가는 소프트웨어(고마진·반복) 믹스 확대와 메인프레임 사이클, 그리고 잉여현금흐름 $147억이 만든다. 상방은 생성형 AI 수주 $125억+의 소프트웨어 전환, 하방은 컨설팅 거시 둔화. 칩은 삼성 파운드리, AI 컴퓨트는 엔비디아에 의존."},"segments_en":{"fy":2025,"parts":[{"desc":"$29.96B (+10.6%). The recurring-revenue engine accelerated by Red Hat (OpenShift ARR +30%+) — the core of IBM's re-rating and the axis it grows via acquisitions like HashiCorp.","name":"Software - Red Hat, automation, Data & AI (watsonx)"},{"desc":"$15.72B (+12.1%). Driven by the z17/Telum II upgrade cycle — it monetizes the captive install base every few years, but its cyclicality makes the swings large.","name":"Infrastructure - IBM Z mainframe (z17), Power, storage"},{"desc":"$21.06B (+1.8%). Growth capped by macro IT-spend pressure — the gen-AI book is a recovery signal but hinges on discretionary budgets returning.","name":"Consulting - hybrid cloud, business transformation"}],"total":"Revenue $67.5B (FY2025, +8% — best in nearly a decade), net income $10.59B, diluted EPS $11.17, FCF $14.73B. The year the mix tilted from cyclical hardware to recurring software.","concentration":"Profit and the re-rating come from a growing software (high-margin, recurring) mix, the mainframe cycle, and $14.7B of free cash flow. Upside is converting the >$12.5B gen-AI book into software; downside is Consulting's macro drag. 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IBM Z(z17/텔럼 II)는 전환비용에 묶인 캡티브 기반을 수년 주기로 현금화하고(인프라 +12.1%), 그 위에서 Red Hat(OpenShift ARR +30%+)·watsonx가 반복매출을 키운다(소프트웨어 +10.6%). 재평가의 실체는 잉여현금흐름 $147억을 HashiCorp 등 소프트웨어 인수로 돌려 고마진 믹스를 확대하는 것 — 생성형 AI 수주 $125억+가 그 전환의 계량 지표다. 리스크는 컨설팅(+1.8%)의 거시 둔화와 AI 수주의 소프트웨어 전환 지속성. 밸류체인상 IBM은 설계만 하고 칩은 삼성 파운드리(텔럼 5nm), AI 컴퓨트는 엔비디아에 의존해 상류 실리콘 리스크에 노출된다. 그래프 파급은 IBM←삼성(파운드리)·IBM←엔비디아(GPU)·IBM→Red Hat/HashiCorp(소프트웨어 롤업)로 관측된다.","analysis_en":"IBM's thesis is 'a software re-rating on top of a mainframe cash cow.' IBM Z (z17/Telum II) monetizes a switching-cost-locked captive base on a multi-year cycle (Infrastructure +12.1%), and on top of it Red Hat (OpenShift ARR +30%+) and watsonx grow recurring revenue (Software +10.6%). The substance of the re-rating is recycling $14.7B of free cash flow into software acquisitions (HashiCorp and others) to expand the high-margin mix — the >$12.5B gen-AI book is the metric of that shift. Risks are Consulting's macro drag (+1.8%) and whether the AI book converts to durable software. In the value chain IBM only designs, depending on Samsung Foundry for chips (Telum 5nm) and NVIDIA for AI compute, exposing it to upstream silicon risk. Graph exposure runs IBM<-Samsung (foundry), IBM<-NVIDIA (GPU) and IBM->Red Hat/HashiCorp (software roll-up).","analysis_asof":"2026-07-12"},"edges":[{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"기업 (z17 메인프레임·왓슨x)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2025,"eps_usd":11.17,"yoy_pct":8,"fcf_usd_bn":14.73,"infra_usd_bn":15.72,"revenue_usd_bn":67.5,"software_usd_bn":29.96,"consulting_usd_bn":21.06,"genai_book_usd_bn":12.5},"note":"IBM Z 메인프레임은 세계 고가치 거래(은행·항공·유통)의 상당 부분을 처리하는, 전환비용에 묶인 캡티브 설치기반이다 — 이 기반을 z17/텔럼 II 업그레이드 사이클(출시 시 IBM Z +59%)이 수년마다 현금화하고, 그 위에 Red Hat·watsonx가 반복매출을 얹는다. FY2025 매출 $675억(+8%)·생성형 AI 수주 $125억+로, 믹스가 사이클성 하드웨어에서 반복성 소프트웨어로 기운다.","note_en":"IBM Z mainframes process a large share of the world's high-value transactions (banking, airlines, retail) — a switching-cost-locked, captive install base. The z17/Telum II upgrade cycle (IBM Z +59% at launch) monetizes that base every few years, and Red Hat and watsonx layer recurring revenue on top. FY2025 revenue $67.5B (+8%) with a >$12.5B gen-AI book — the mix is tilting from cyclical hardware to recurring software.","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"MarketScreener","publisher_en":"MarketScreener","kind":"research","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-06-01","url":"https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/INTERNATIONAL-BUSINESS-MACH-4828/consensus/","title":"IBM 투자의견·목표주가 컨센서스","title_en":"IBM analyst consensus and price target","excerpt":"재평가 근거 — 근 10년 최고 잉여현금흐름 $147억·AI 수주 $125억+·메인프레임 사이클. 컨센서스 관심은 소프트웨어 믹스 전환의 지속성.","excerpt_en":"Re-rating case — best-in-a-decade FCF of $14.7B, >$12.5B AI book, mainframe cycle; consensus focus is the durability of the software mix shift."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm","title":"IBM 연차보고서 10-K (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM Annual Report Form 10-K (FY2025)","excerpt":"FY2025 매출 $675억(+8%, 근 10년 최고)·순이익 $105.9억·희석EPS $11.17·잉여현금흐름 $147억(+$20억). 소프트웨어 $299.6억(+10.6%, Red Hat)·컨설팅 $210.6억(+1.8%)·인프라 $157.2억(+12.1%, z17 사이클).","excerpt_en":"FY2025 revenue $67.5B (+8%, best in nearly a decade), net income $10.59B, diluted EPS $11.17, FCF $14.73B (+$2.0B). Software $29.96B (+10.6%, Red Hat), Consulting $21.06B (+1.8%), Infrastructure $15.72B (+12.1%, z17 cycle)."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"IBM","publisher_en":"IBM","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-01-28","url":"https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-01-28-IBM-RELEASES-FOURTH-QUARTER-RESULTS","title":"IBM 4분기·연간 실적 발표 (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM releases fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results","excerpt":"소프트웨어·인프라가 성장 견인, Red Hat 가속·z17 채택. 생성형 AI 수주 $125억+.","excerpt_en":"Software and Infrastructure led growth on Red Hat acceleration and z17 adoption; gen-AI book >$12.5B."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Blocks and Files","publisher_en":"Blocks and Files","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-10-24","url":"https://www.blocksandfiles.com/ai-ml/2025/10/24/ibm-rides-mainframe-and-ai-wave-to-strongest-growth-in-years/1605456","title":"IBM, 메인프레임·AI로 수년 만의 최고 성장","title_en":"IBM rides mainframe and AI wave to strongest growth in years","excerpt":"Mainframe and AI wave drives IBM's strongest growth in years; gen-AI segment $12.5B.","excerpt_en":"Strongest growth in years; gen-AI book $12.5B."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-10-22","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114325000063/ibm_ex991.htm","title":"IBM 실적 발표 (8-K)","title_en":"IBM earnings release (8-K)","excerpt":"IBM Z revenues grew 59% year-over-year on the z17 cycle; Red Hat revenue growth of 17%.","excerpt_en":"IBM Z +59% on z17; Red Hat +17%."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"삼성전자 (파운드리 — 텔럼·파워 위탁생산)","counterparty_slug":"samsung-electronics","confidence":"high","metric":{"nodes":["5nm","7nm"],"products":["telum_ii","telum","power10"],"relationship":"foundry"},"note":"IBM은 텔럼·파워 프로세서를 설계하되 스스로 만들지 않는다 — 삼성 파운드리가 텔럼 II를 5nm(600mm²·트랜지스터 430억개), 텔럼/파워10을 7nm EUV로 위탁생산하는 10년+ 파트너십이다. 2015년 자체 팹을 GlobalFoundries에 매각하고(이후 7nm 공급 불이행으로 GF와 소송→2024 합의) 첨단칩을 삼성으로 옮긴 결과라, z17 사이클이 삼성 수율에 직결된다.","note_en":"IBM designs Telum/Power but fabricates nothing itself — Samsung Foundry makes Telum II on 5nm (600mm2, 43bn transistors) and Telum/Power10 on 7nm EUV, a 10+-year partnership. It followed IBM's 2015 exit from its own fabs (sold to GlobalFoundries, then litigation over GF's failed 7nm handoff, settled 2024) and the move of leading-edge chips to Samsung — so the z17 cycle rides Samsung yields.","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm","title":"IBM 연차보고서 10-K (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM Annual Report Form 10-K (FY2025)","excerpt":"IBM은 반도체 제조를 외주 — 첨단 로직 공급을 파운드리 파트너에 의존.","excerpt_en":"IBM outsources semiconductor manufacturing — depends on foundry partners for leading-edge logic supply."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"SamMobile","publisher_en":"SamMobile","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2024-08-26","url":"https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-foundry-manufacture-ibm-two-new-ai-chips/","title":"삼성 파운드리, IBM AI 칩 2종 위탁생산","title_en":"Samsung Foundry to manufacture IBM's two new AI chips","excerpt":"삼성 파운드리가 IBM의 신규 AI 칩(텔럼 II 등)을 5nm로 위탁생산 — IBM의 오랜 제조 파트너.","excerpt_en":"Samsung Foundry manufactures IBM's new AI chips (Telum II) on 5nm — IBM's long-standing fabrication partner."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"ZDNet Korea","publisher_en":"ZDNet Korea","kind":"news","lang":"ko","published_at":"2021-12-16","url":"https://zdnet.co.kr/view/?no=20211216141614","title":"퀄컴·IBM·구글·ST까지 잡았다...삼성전자 파운드리 겹경사","title_en":"Samsung Foundry wins Qualcomm, IBM, Google, ST — makes IBM's Power10 (7nm)/Power11 (5nm) server CPUs","excerpt":"삼성전자가 IBM 서버 CPU 파워10(7nm EUV)·파워11(5nm)을 위탁생산; 10년+ 공정 R&D 협력, 2015년 업계 첫 7nm 시제품.","excerpt_en":"Samsung makes IBM's Power10 (7nm EUV) and Power11 (5nm) server CPUs; a 10+-year process-R&D partnership with the industry's first 7nm test chip in 2015."}]},{"direction":"investment","counterparty":"Red Hat (2019 인수 $340억)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"year":2019,"deal_usd_bn":34},"note":"2019년 $340억 Red Hat 인수는 쇠락하던 하드웨어·서비스에서 하이브리드 클라우드 소프트웨어로 IBM을 돌린 축이다 — OpenShift(ARR +30%+)가 소프트웨어 성장 엔진이고, '어느 클라우드에도 종속 안 되는' 멀티클라우드 중립성이 IBM의 해자가 됐다. 이후 소프트웨어 롤업의 기반.","note_en":"The $34B 2019 Red Hat acquisition is the pivot that turned IBM from declining hardware/services to hybrid-cloud software — OpenShift (ARR +30%+) is the software growth engine, and multi-cloud neutrality ('locked to no single cloud') became IBM's moat, the foundation for its later software roll-up.","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm","title":"IBM 연차보고서 10-K (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM Annual Report Form 10-K (FY2025)","excerpt":"Red Hat는 소프트웨어 부문 성장을 주도(OpenShift ARR +30%+).","excerpt_en":"Red Hat drives Software-segment growth (OpenShift ARR +30%+)."}]},{"direction":"investment","counterparty":"HashiCorp (2025 인수 $64억)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"year":2025,"deal_usd_bn":6.4},"note":"2025년 2월 $64억 HashiCorp(Terraform·Vault) 인수는 Red Hat을 인프라 자동화·시크릿 관리로 넓히는 수순이다 — Apptio·Turbonomic·StreamSets에 이어 잉여현금흐름으로 반복매출 소프트웨어를 사들여 그룹 믹스를 소프트웨어로 끌어올리는 의도적 롤업.","note_en":"The $6.4B February 2025 HashiCorp (Terraform, Vault) acquisition extends Red Hat into infrastructure automation and secrets management — following Apptio, Turbonomic and StreamSets, a deliberate roll-up that uses free cash flow to buy recurring-revenue software and lift the group mix toward software.","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm","title":"IBM 연차보고서 10-K (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM Annual Report Form 10-K (FY2025)","excerpt":"IBM은 소프트웨어 믹스 확대를 위한 인수를 지속.","excerpt_en":"IBM continues acquisitions to expand its software mix."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"IBM","publisher_en":"IBM","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-02-27","url":"https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-02-27-ibm-completes-acquisition-of-hashicorp,-creates-comprehensive,-end-to-end-hybrid-cloud-platform","title":"IBM, HashiCorp 인수 완료 ($64억)","title_en":"IBM completes acquisition of HashiCorp (USD 6.4B)","excerpt":"IBM, HashiCorp 인수 완료($64억) — 하이브리드 클라우드 인프라 자동화·보안 강화.","excerpt_en":"IBM completed the HashiCorp acquisition ($6.4B) — strengthening hybrid-cloud infrastructure automation and security."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"양자 생태계 (스탈링 로드맵)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"mid","metric":{"roadmap":"starling","fault_tolerant_year":2029},"note":"IBM의 스탈링 로드맵(2029년 대규모 내오류 양자컴퓨터)은 장기 옵션이다 — IBM Quantum으로 클라우드 양자 접근을 팔며 기업의 진입 관문을 자처한다. IonQ·리게티는 고객이 아니라 경쟁자라 이 엣지는 공급이 아닌 생태계·수요 축(cpid 없음).","note_en":"IBM's Starling roadmap (large-scale fault-tolerant quantum by 2029) is a long-dated option — it sells cloud quantum access via IBM Quantum and positions as the enterprise on-ramp. IonQ and Rigetti are rivals, not customers, so this edge is the ecosystem/demand axis, not a supplier link (no cpid).","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm","title":"IBM 연차보고서 10-K (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM Annual Report Form 10-K (FY2025)","excerpt":"양자·AI 등 신흥기술에 R&D를 지속 투자.","excerpt_en":"Continues R&D investment in emerging technologies including quantum and AI."},{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"Blocks and Files","publisher_en":"Blocks and Files","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-10-24","url":"https://www.blocksandfiles.com/ai-ml/2025/10/24/ibm-rides-mainframe-and-ai-wave-to-strongest-growth-in-years/1605456","title":"IBM, 메인프레임·AI로 수년 만의 최고 성장","title_en":"IBM rides mainframe and AI wave to strongest growth in years","excerpt":"IBM plans Starling, a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029; first error-corrected demo by 2028.","excerpt_en":"Starling fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"엔비디아 (AI 컴퓨트 — watsonx·IBM Cloud)","counterparty_slug":"nvidia","confidence":"mid","metric":{"product":"gpu","relationship":"ai_compute"},"note":"IBM은 기업용 AI '레이어'를 팔지만 그 밑의 컴퓨트는 엔비디아에서 산다 — watsonx.data의 Presto 엔진을 NVIDIA cuDF/GPU로 가속(네슬레 테스트 30배 가격성능)하고 GTC 2026에서 협력을 확대했다. watsonx 경제성이 엔비디아 실리콘에 올라타 있어, AI 수주 확대는 곧 엔비디아 컴퓨트 의존 확대.","note_en":"IBM sells the enterprise-AI 'layer' but buys the compute beneath it from NVIDIA — watsonx.data's Presto engine is accelerated by NVIDIA cuDF/GPUs (a Nestle test showed 30x price-performance), and the two expanded their collaboration at GTC 2026. watsonx economics ride NVIDIA silicon, so scaling the AI book deepens dependence on NVIDIA compute.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"IBM","publisher_en":"IBM","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-03-16","url":"https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-03-16-ibm-and-nvidia-announce-expanded-collaboration-at-gtc-2026-to-advance-ai-for-the-enterprise","title":"IBM·엔비디아, 기업용 AI 협력 확대 (GTC 2026)","title_en":"IBM and NVIDIA announce expanded collaboration at GTC 2026 to advance enterprise AI","excerpt":"IBM·엔비디아 협력 확대 — GPU 네이티브 분석·watsonx NIM/cuDF 통합으로 기업 AI 프로덕션화.","excerpt_en":"IBM-NVIDIA expanded collaboration — GPU-native analytics and watsonx NIM/cuDF integration to operationalize enterprise AI."},{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"SEC EDGAR","publisher_en":"SEC EDGAR","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-02-24","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000010/ibm-20251231.htm","title":"IBM 연차보고서 10-K (FY2025)","title_en":"IBM Annual Report Form 10-K (FY2025)","excerpt":"IBM은 AI 인프라·watsonx에 GPU 가속 컴퓨트를 활용.","excerpt_en":"IBM leverages GPU-accelerated compute for its AI infrastructure and watsonx."}]}]}