Semiconductor metrology & inspection · Advanced packaging & HBM
Onto Innovation
A semiconductor metrology/inspection maker strong in advanced packaging and HBM inspection, tied directly to the back-end investment cycle. FY2025 revenue was a record $1.0053B (+1.8%), but the quality of growth lies in Advanced Nodes doubling ($148.5M→~$300M) and Advanced Packaging & Specialty exceeding $500M — even with modest total growth, the AI/HBM axis expanded structurally. The thesis is HBM and 2.5D/3D packaging: as structures grow more miniaturized and stacked, metrology/inspection steps multiply and tool demand rises structurally, with Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC the channel. The crux is back-end capex-cycle volatility and concentration in a few large customers.
ONTO Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers· 3 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Onto Innovation is directly linked to 3 companies (0 supply, 3 revenue relationships) and reaches 28 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 4 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · FY2025 revenue $1.0053B (+1.8%, record), GAAP net income $136.8M, diluted EPS $2.78, gross margin 49.7% (vs 52.2%). Q4 record $266.9M. Advanced Nodes ~$300M (2x from $148.5M in FY2024) and Advanced Packaging + Specialty $500M+ drove the AI/HBM axis.
- Segments · Advanced Packaging & Specialty · Advanced Nodes · Software & Services
Revenue from
- SK hynix High confidence· Revenue ~$500M · 2025 · Advanced Packaging & Specialty segment revenue $500M+ (HBM, 2.5D/3D inspection)
Supplies HBM-inspection tools to SK Hynix — HBM capacity expansion transmits directly into metrology/inspection demand.Confirms EN Seeking Alpha Published Feb 20, 2026: Onto Innovation projects over 30% advanced packaging growth in 2026 amid record backlog and AI demandConfirms EN Onto Innovation IR Published Feb 19, 2026: Onto Innovation Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results - Samsung Electronics Medium confidence· Revenue $1B · 2025 · Onto FY2025 total revenue $1.0053B (+1.8%, record) — per-customer share undisclosed
Supplies memory/packaging inspection tools to Samsung — a core demand point in the back-end investment cycle.Confirms EN Onto Innovation IR Published Feb 19, 2026: Onto Innovation Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results - TSMC Medium confidence
Supplies metrology/inspection tools for TSMC advanced packaging (e.g., CoWoS) — inspection demand rises structurally as stacking and miniaturization grow complex.
Pays to
- equipment & infrastructure (undisclosed) Low confidence
Production equipment and infrastructure (undisclosed).Mentions EN Onto Innovation IR Published Feb 19, 2026: Onto Innovation Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results - components, materials & R&D (undisclosed) Low confidence
Parts, materials and R&D (undisclosed).Mentions EN Onto Innovation IR Published Feb 19, 2026: Onto Innovation Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvell | lead2 | +84.6 | -57.5 | +63.7 | +83.8 | -22.8 | +163.4 |
| Intel | lead2 | +6.1 | -46.6 | +94.6 | -59.6 | +84 | +159.6 |
| MediaTek | lead2 | +27.8 | -26.6 | +52.9 | +58.3 | +24.9 | +152.4 |
| AMD | lead2 | +56.9 | -55 | +127.6 | -18.1 | +77.3 | +123 |
| Global Unichip | lead2 | +21.4 | +67.6 | +99.4 | -13.7 | +101.4 | +122.8 |
| Fortinet | lead2 | +142 | -32 | +19.7 | +61.4 | -16 | +96.8 |
| Astera Labs | lead2 | · | · | · | · | +25.6 | +86.6 |
| Realtek | lead2 | +19.6 | -33.8 | +56.2 | +19.1 | -6.4 | +47.5 |
| Cisco | lead2 | +45.8 | -22.5 | +9.3 | +21 | +33.5 | +43.8 |
| Alchip Technologies | lead2 | +14.3 | -8.7 | +365.1 | -18.9 | +0.8 | +36.1 |
| Analog Devices | lead2 | +21 | -4.9 | +23.4 | +8.8 | +29.8 | +34.8 |
| Renesas Electronics | lead2 | +8.2 | +2.4 | +88 | -13.6 | +23.8 | +28.2 |
| Credo Technology | lead2 | · | · | +46.3 | +245.2 | +114.1 | +18.5 |
| Microchip Technology | lead2 | +27.5 | -18 | +30.9 | -35 | +14.6 | +18.4 |
| Apple | lead2 | +34.6 | -26.4 | +49 | +30.7 | +9.1 | +18 |
| Sony Semiconductor Solutions | lead2 | +27.2 | -8.4 | +27.8 | +17.9 | +1 | +12.9 |
| NXP Semiconductors | lead2 | +44.8 | -29.2 | +48.4 | -8 | +6.4 | +5.9 |
| Broadcom | lead2 | +56.5 | -13.3 | +104.2 | +110.5 | +50.6 | +3.8 |
| Montage Technology | lead2 | -18.2 | -21.8 | -18 | +51.4 | +169 | +3.4 |
| Qualcomm | lead2 | +22.3 | -38.6 | +35.1 | +8.3 | +13.8 | +0.2 |
| Ambarella | lead2 | +121 | -59.5 | -25.5 | +18.7 | -2.6 | -11.2 |
| Phison Electronics | lead2 | +26.8 | -10.7 | +45.1 | -6.7 | +418.3 | -14.7 |
| Mobileye | lead2 | · | · | +23.6 | -54 | -47.6 | -18 |
| Will Semiconductor | lead2 | -12.1 | -49.7 | -8.3 | +22.8 | +15.5 | -33.7 |
| TSMC | lead1 | +12.1 | -36.7 | +42.3 | +92.6 | +55.9 | +41.9 |
| Onto Innovation | node | +112.9 | -32.7 | +124.6 | +9 | -5.3 | +69.8 |
YTD as of 2026-09-04 · source: Yahoo Finance
Onto Innovation operates across NYSE, Metrology & inspection, advanced packaging/HBM. It is up +69.8% in 2026. The stock (+69.8%) and its demand side (avg +61.1%) are moving in step. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is SK hynix (+81.6%) and the furthest behind is TSMC (+41.9%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. The crux is back-end capex-cycle volatility and concentration in a few large customers.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 3 · Hold 0 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $410 · Price $268.01 (09-04) · Upside +53%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald · Matthew Prisco | Overweight | $410 | Jun 29, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Oppenheimer · Edward Yang | Outperform | $450 | Jun 22, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Mizuho Securities | Buy | $371 | Jun 15, 2026 | Report ↗ |
Dragonfly G5 demand tied to AI advanced packaging metrology drove sharp June 2026 target hikes from Cantor Fitzgerald ($410) and Oppenheimer ($450), underpinning a Strong Buy consensus.