FC-BGA package substrates (ABF)
Ibiden
A global leader (~35% share) in high-end FC-BGA (flip-chip) package substrates. Mass-produced ABF substrates with Intel as its first customer in 1999; now a leading supplier for NVIDIA AI accelerators. AI accelerators need 8–18 substrate layers, making it a bottleneck. Investing ¥500B (~$3.3B) to expand NVIDIA capacity.
4062.T Updated Jul 12, 2026 5 AI consumers· 2 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Ibiden is directly linked to 4 companies (1 supply, 3 revenue relationships) and reaches 40 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 6 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · ≈No.1 in FC-BGA (~35%)
- Customer concentration · Intel (since 1999), NVIDIA, AMD; AI-substrate bottleneck.
- Segments · IC package substrates (FC-BGA)(~35% (≈No.1)) · Ceramics/other
Revenue from
- Intel High confidence· Market share 35% · 2024 · global FC-BGA share
Supplies FC-BGA package substrates to Intel.Confirms EN IBIDEN Published May 5, 2026: IBIDEN FY2026 (year ended March 2026) Consolidated ResultsConfirms JA Ibiden / EDINET Published Jun 20, 2025: Ibiden Annual Securities Report (FY ended Mar 2025)Confirms EN DigiTimes Published Jan 2, 2025: Ibiden’s exclusive AI-substrate position with Intel and NVIDIA - NVIDIA High confidence
Supplies FC-BGA package substrates to NVIDIA. - AMD Medium confidence
Supplies FC-BGA package substrates to AMD.
Pays to
- Ajinomoto High confidence
Sources interlayer dielectric (ABF) from Ajinomoto (near sole source).Confirms EN TradingKey Published Jan 1, 2026: ABF: Ajinomoto film inside every AI-server substrate (80-90%) - Build-up · plating equipment (undisclosed) Low confidence
Build-up, plating and laser equipment (undisclosed). - ABF film · copper foil (Ajinomoto etc., undisclosed) Low confidence
Buys ABF build-up film (Ajinomoto) and copper foil.Mentions EN DigiTimes Published Jan 2, 2025: Ibiden’s exclusive AI-substrate position with Intel and NVIDIA
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dell Technologies | lead2 | +51.2 | -26.6 | +95.9 | +53 | +11.2 | +248.1 |
| Lenovo | lead2 | -4.6 | -20.9 | +36.2 | +18.2 | -0.6 | +175.7 |
| Hewlett Packard Enterprise | lead2 | +37.4 | +4.5 | +9.7 | +29.1 | +15.5 | +104 |
| TeraWulf | lead2 | +77.1 | -95.5 | +258.2 | +135.8 | +103 | +91.2 |
| Aurora Innovation | lead2 | · | -89.3 | +261.2 | +44.2 | -39 | +66.1 |
| Mercury Systems | lead2 | -37.5 | -18.7 | -18.3 | +14.8 | +73.8 | +47.9 |
| ASUSTeK Computer | lead2 | +35.5 | -12.9 | +72 | +41.1 | -14.1 | +46.7 |
| Wiwynn | lead2 | +24.7 | -22.3 | +206.4 | +3.5 | +64.4 | +45.1 |
| Gigabyte Technology | lead2 | +82.3 | -3.4 | +173.2 | -15.9 | -4.7 | +44.4 |
| Cloudflare | lead2 | +73 | -65.6 | +84.2 | +29.3 | +83.1 | +36.1 |
| Quanta Computer | lead2 | +22.2 | -12.8 | +254.5 | +12.7 | +8.9 | +33.4 |
| SK Telecom | lead2 | +7.9 | -12 | +15.8 | +15.5 | +37.5 | +23.4 |
| Celestica | lead2 | +37.9 | +1.3 | +159.8 | +215.2 | +220.3 | +21.7 |
| Geely Auto | lead2 | -40.8 | -22.9 | -40.3 | +98.5 | +14.5 | +18.9 |
| Wistron | lead2 | +7.9 | +9.7 | +272.7 | -1.6 | +22.7 | +14.8 |
| Alphabet (Google) | lead2 | +65.3 | -39.1 | +58.3 | +36 | +66 | +14.3 |
| Foxconn (Hon Hai) | lead2 | -5.1 | +2.8 | +7.8 | +80.1 | +26.9 | +10.9 |
| IREN | lead2 | · | -92.3 | +472 | +37.3 | +284.6 | +8.9 |
| Amazon | lead2 | +2.4 | -49.6 | +80.9 | +44.4 | +5.2 | +6.3 |
| Meta Platforms | lead2 | +23.1 | -64.2 | +194.1 | +66 | +13.1 | +1.6 |
| Tempus AI | lead2 | · | · | · | · | +74.9 | -1.4 |
| IBM | lead2 | +16.7 | +10.6 | +21.8 | +39.3 | +38.2 | -1.6 |
| Super Micro | lead2 | +38.8 | +86.8 | +246.2 | +7.2 | -4 | -3.3 |
| General Motors | lead2 | +40.8 | -42.4 | +7.9 | +49.8 | +54.2 | -3.8 |
| IonQ | lead2 | · | -79.3 | +259.1 | +237.1 | +7.4 | -4.5 |
| Hyundai Motor Company | lead2 | -16.7 | -4.7 | +16.2 | +12.3 | +158.8 | -7.8 |
| Tesla | lead2 | +49.8 | -65 | +101.7 | +62.5 | +11.4 | -9.3 |
| Toyota Motor Corporation | lead2 | +58.1 | -13.4 | +63 | +1.8 | +21.8 | -18.2 |
| Microsoft | lead2 | +52.5 | -28 | +58.2 | +12.9 | +15.6 | -20 |
| Alibaba Group | lead2 | -49 | -25.8 | -10.8 | +11.8 | +75.8 | -22.7 |
| Tencent Holdings Limited | lead2 | -28.6 | -14.2 | -28.7 | +49.8 | +52.1 | -23.2 |
| Baidu | lead2 | · | -8.2 | -23.4 | -13.5 | +74.2 | -24.5 |
| Rigetti Computing | lead2 | · | -92.9 | +35.1 | +1449.2 | +45.2 | -25.3 |
| Oracle | lead2 | +36.9 | -4.6 | +30.9 | +60 | +18.1 | -27.4 |
| Kratos Defense | lead2 | -29.3 | -46.8 | +96.6 | +30 | +187.8 | -36.5 |
| Pony.ai | lead2 | · | · | · | · | +1 | -54.6 |
| Intel | lead1 | +6.1 | -46.6 | +94.6 | -59.6 | +84 | +197.7 |
| AMD | lead1 | +56.9 | -55 | +127.6 | -18.1 | +77.3 | +160.5 |
| NVIDIA | lead1 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +13.3 |
| Ibiden | node | +30.4 | -19.6 | +51.6 | -38.6 | +261 | +147.1 |
| Ajinomoto | benef1 | +31 | +36 | +44.5 | +4 | +14.1 | +63.7 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
Ibiden operates across FC-BGA package substrates (ABF). It surged +261% in 2025 and +147.1% in 2026. The stock (+147.1%) is ahead of both its demand side (avg +123%) and supply side (avg +63.7%). Having run ahead of its chain, it is the first spot to give back if customer numbers fail to follow. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is Intel (+205%) and the furthest behind is NVIDIA (+8.7%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. Investing ¥500B (~$3.3B) to expand NVIDIA capacity.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-10Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 1 · Sell 0 · Avg. target ¥11,660 · Price ¥20,300 (07-10) · Upside -43%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | ¥13,000 | Nov 25, 2025 | Report ↗ |
| J.P. Morgan | Overweight | ¥12,900 | Oct 10, 2025 | Report ↗ |
| Bernstein · David Dai | Outperform | ¥9,080 | Oct 1, 2025 | Report ↗ |
Downgraded Overweight to Equal-Weight (target ¥9,500 to ¥13,000), judging further upside limited after a 179% surge since February; Nvidia demand stays strong but is already priced in.
Analyses covering this node
- Clocks that haven't run and clocks that ran hardest Jul 5, 2026
- The propagation was real and it had an order: the lag itself draws the chain Jun 23, 2026
- The bottleneck moved from silicon to the package: the year the board outran the chip Jun 23, 2026
- Many clocks: the information a single average erases Jun 23, 2026
- The money enters through one door: AI demand converges on hyperscaler capex Jun 23, 2026