Why do layers in the same chain run on different clocks?

Because cash takes physical time to flow down the chain. Demand heats the chips first, then revenue reaches the equipment and memory that build them, the substrates that hold them, and the power that runs them, arriving quarters and years apart. Each layer's best year lags by about a year, and layers gated by permits and construction, like power, run slower still.

Which layers still have room, on facts alone?

The power execution layer on its long permit-and-build clock (Vertiv +86%, Caterpillar +40.6% through October 9), humanoid reducers just starting up (Harmonic Drive +161%), and the compute follower AMD (+142%).

Which layer warrants the most caution?

Substrates and packaging, where 2026 heat concentrated (Samsung Electro-Mechanics +613%), carry the most give-back risk, and the AI funding side cooling first (Microsoft -19%, Oracle -28%) is the leading signal of demand slowing.

Analysis · Cycle position · Early and late clocks · Facts-only synthesis

Clocks that haven't run and clocks that ran hardest

Published Jul 5, 2026 · Updated Nov 6, 2026 · .md

The 53 graph nodes this analysis spans average +40% in 2026; the furthest ahead is AT&S (+464.3%) and the furthest behind is Hyundai Rotem Company (-64%) (valuechain.wiki graph of 1360 nodes and 5519 sourced edges, as of 2026-10-30).

Key Q&A

Why do layers in the same chain run on different clocks?: Because cash takes physical time to flow down the chain. Demand heats the chips first, then revenue reaches the equipment and memory that build them, the substrates that hold them, and the power that runs them, arriving quarters and years apart. Each layer's best year lags by about a year, and layers gated by permits and construction, like power, run slower still.
Which layers still have room, on facts alone?: The power execution layer on its long permit-and-build clock (Vertiv +86%, Caterpillar +40.6% through October 9), humanoid reducers just starting up (Harmonic Drive +161%), and the compute follower AMD (+142%).
Which layer warrants the most caution?: Substrates and packaging, where 2026 heat concentrated (Samsung Electro-Mechanics +613%), carry the most give-back risk, and the AI funding side cooling first (Microsoft -19%, Oracle -28%) is the leading signal of demand slowing.

The shape of the returns sorts the clocks

This wiki holds year-by-year returns for about 300 companies. Lay those numbers out by chain layer and read them at one moment, and even under the single word "AI" some layers have clearly passed their peak while others are just starting up. Set broker targets aside, and the returns and the chain position alone already separate what is early from what is late.

The reading rule is the one set in Many clocks: gains propagate along the chain with a lag from layer to layer. That narrows the judgment to two axes. A layer whose clock has not started still has room, and a layer that ran hardest carries the give-back. What follows sorts the chain along those two axes.

Clocks that haven't run, part one: the power execution layer

As The next bottleneck is power argued, power runs on the slower clock of plant permits and grid construction. In 2026, data-center site and interconnection operator Equinix gained 34.3% through October 30 as Q3 annualized gross bookings grew 35%. Caterpillar, in generation, slowed to +10.5% after gaining 60.3% in 2025, even as Q3 Power Generation application sales rose 30% to $3.421 billion. GnCenergy also disclosed KRW 2.9544 billion of Caterpillar engine purchases in 2025 and separate ten-set and three-set project references. Buyer procurement and installed units are not Caterpillar consolidated revenue. Demand transmitted from site operations into generator supply, but the stocks did not move at the same speed.

The layer still needs a distinction. The small modular reactors that ran on pre-commercial expectation (Oklo -27% in 2026, NuScale -31%) and the transformers already past their peak (HD Hyundai Electric decelerating from 300% through 120% to +7%) are in a different phase. The principle that only physical capacity turning into revenue keeps rising holds inside the layer too.

Clocks that haven't run, part two: humanoid parts and the compute follower

The earliest case in Frontiers rerate infrastructure before application is humanoids. Harmonic Drive, in joint reducers, was down -24% in 2025 and then started up +161% in 2026, with servo maker Yaskawa at +53%. The application side that builds the robots (Tesla -12%, UBTech -22%) is still held down. The infrastructure-first grammar is intact.

The compute layer has a follower clock too. While NVIDIA cooled from +171% in 2024 to +5% in 2026, AMD accelerated from -18% through +77% to +142% in 2026. The number-two in the same bottleneck layer is turning late, in the space the leader's cooling left open.

Even within that layer, a new listing and a scarce supplier ran on different clocks. Cerebras grew Q2 revenue 74% but fell 68.8% from its first-day close through November 2. Sole foundry TSMC gained 50.3% through October 9. Even with 750MW committed by OpenAI, the systems-and-cloud company carrying data-center execution and customer concentration was repriced before the leading-edge supplier.

Clocks that ran hardest, part one: substrates and packaging

The 2026 explosion flagged by The bottleneck moved from silicon to the package concentrated in a single year. Samsung Electro-Mechanics rose +613% in 2026, AT&S +432%, ASE +160% and Ibiden +184%. The heat piled into the last cell of the chain's propagation.

That concentration is itself the caution signal. The principle left by The memory supercycle, that what rises fastest gives back fastest, weighs most heavily on this layer right now. Samsung Electro-Mechanics at +613% in one year is the extreme case.

Clocks that ran hardest, part two: the funding side cools first

Memory has passed its extreme as well. Kioxia printed +1,082% in 2025 and then +290% in 2026, while Nanya decelerated from +985% to +25%. The heat of the peak is leaking out.

The earlier signal sits at the demand end. As seen in Circular AI financing, this chain cools from the seller's side first. Microsoft, on the funding side, was -19% in 2026 and Oracle -28%, while Nebius, which takes that money and spends it, was still hot at +158%. If the payers cool first and the recipients later, that too is propagation with a lag, downward this time. It is the line that puts the whole AI demand chain on watch.

Listed alternatives managers send the same warning. Ares grew Q2 2026 AUM and fee-paying AUM by 17% and raised a record $36.4 billion, yet its shares fell 25.0% through October 9. KKR (-32.0% through October 9) and Blackstone (-21.6% through October 28) moved the same way. BlackRock, diversified across ETFs, cash management and Aladdin, instead reached $15.49 trillion of AUM and stayed positive at 2.8% in 2026. Even among infrastructure funders, private-credit concentration and revenue mix changed the size of the rates and valuation shock.

The same capital provider also appears in life sciences. Blackstone owns rights to 50% of future Alnylam Leqvio royalties. Novartis Q3 2026 Leqvio sales rose 64% to $506 million, and Alnylam total royalties in the same quarter rose 105% to $94.664 million, primarily on higher Leqvio volume and rate. Yet Alnylam shares were down 59.1% through November 5 and Blackstone 21.6% through October 28. Total royalties cannot be treated as Leqvio-only revenue, and nine-month liability payments cannot be converted into Blackstone's quarterly cash receipts. Sales, rights ownership and equity prices moved on different clocks. The Alnylam Q3 10-Q and Novartis Q3 report define the comparison.

Clocks outside the chain

Mitsubishi Corporation gained 40.8% through October 27, 2026, while strategic holding Mitsubishi Motors was down 4.3% on the same date. That is weak evidence for an auto-demand wave reaching the trading house. On October 21 Mitsubishi and Hudbay approved the Copper World mine. Expected cumulative investment for Mitsubishi’s 30% stake is $1.023 billion, but the project-wide target of roughly 100,000 tonnes of annual copper starts only after first production planned for H2 2029. The shares moved before mine cash flow.

Even within the same automotive chain, Nissan was down 32.8% through October 27, 2026, versus Mitsubishi Motors at -4.3%. Nissan FY2026 Q1 operating profit recovered to JPY77.9 billion from a loss a year earlier, while Mitsubishi European retail volume fell from 15,000 to 9,000. The contract value of Renault’s four OEM models for Mitsubishi is undisclosed. An equity or supply relationship is observable; propagation into automaker demand and shareholder returns still requires separate evidence. The Mitsubishi quarterly data and Nissan release set the next comparison.

### The auto and defense clock can move the business boundary

K2 export expectations lifted Hyundai Rotem 108.8% in 2024 and 290.1% in 2025; main-gun supplier Hyundai Wia followed with a 104.9% gain in 2025. Wia fell 33.8% through 30 October 2026 even as Q3 thermal-management revenue rose 160%. Its mobility operating margin remained only 1.8%. On 19 October Wia agreed to sell its defense division to Rotem for KRW 358.386bn. The unit had KRW 393.1bn of 2025 sales. Wia's K2 supply edge remains valid until the planned March 2027 closing, after which production would move inside Rotem. Earlier supplier returns therefore cannot simply be extended into future external supply revenue. The November shareholder vote and actual closing are the next observations.

The map's boundary shows up in the same returns. Pure defensives with virtually no AI exposure drew money instead in 2026 as AI cooled: Coca-Cola +22%, Nestlé +20%, P&G +7%. Discretionary consumption fell on its own clock the other way. Nike, on weak Greater China sales and inventory correction, was -30% in 2026, moving opposite the rising chain.

Adoption does not change the clock either. Walmart and Starbucks run workflows on Azure and Gemini, but that is a tool to cut costs and is different from demand that lifts revenue. The AI money does not spread outside the chain confirms the boundary across more than twelve controls. Even full dependence on the cloud does not change the clock: Netflix, Airbnb and Disney run on AWS yet move on subscription, travel and content demand. How this map of consumption fans out from defensive through discretionary to luxury is detailed in Consumption does not run on one clock. This layer shows where the phrase "AI beneficiary" stops.

Retail rents run on a separate clock too. Simon rose 95.7% in 2021, ahead of tenants TJX (+12.8%) and Ross (-6.0%), but its 2025 gain of 12.9% lagged their 28.7% and 20.4%. In 2026 Simon gained 11.4% through October 9 while TJX fell 13.2% and Ross rose 28.6% through September 4. Different return cutoffs and undisclosed bilateral rent prevent a direct translation from tenant shares to Simon revenue.

Korea and Asia consumption run on their own clocks too. Amorepacific tracks China's consumption recovery, falling three years running through 2021-2023 on the content ban and China's slowdown before rebounding on US K-beauty. Orion runs on the overseas volumes of China, Vietnam and Russia, up double digits three straight years in 2024-2026 and clearing its first KRW 500B operating profit. CJ CheilJedang, a supposed defensive, instead fell nearly every year on grain and raw-sugar costs, weak domestic demand and heavy debt. The exception is SK Telecom: a carrier that stacked an AI-infrastructure story (GPUaaS, AI data centers, an SK hynix HBM alliance) and re-rated +37.5% in 2025 despite a SIM-hack, the one name in the consumer batch to catch the AI clock.

The boundary does not end at consumption. Even the capital that funds the boom sits outside the chain. JPMorgan, the largest arranger of data-center debt, booked $95.4B of net interest income through 2026, but what lifted its stock was rates, not AI (the +44% of 2024 and +37% of 2025 were the deposit-margin spread of higher-for-longer). Bank of America moves on the same rate beta (-24% in 2022, +34% in 2024). At the opposite extreme sits Berkshire, which instead of buying chips parks $397.4B of cash in short-term Treasuries and waits, earning T-bill yields (+0.3% in 2026). The sharpest paradox is BlackRock: even as it supplies capital directly to AI data centers with Microsoft and NVIDIA through AIP, its stock returned just +6.6% in 2025, far behind the banks. To the sellers AI is revenue, to the users a cost, to the funders a rate clock. The one funding the boom does not capture it in its share price.

### Standby power's operating clock lagged the stock

Cummins gained about 49% in both 2024 and 2025, then slowed to -0.1% through October 30, 2026. Q2 Power Systems sales rose 19% to $2.3 billion at a 24.5% EBITDA margin; Q3 results are due November 5 and are not estimated here. Caterpillar was +10.5% on the same date while Q3 Power Generation application sales rose 30% to $3.421 billion. GnCenergy’s buyer-side 2025 engine purchases were KRW 34.8108 billion from Cummins and KRW 2.9544 billion from Caterpillar. Both suppliers received operating demand, but their stocks diverged with different degrees of 2024-2025 anticipation and different business mixes.

### A media takeover produces a different price signal

Skydance (SKYD) was down 46.4% through October 20, 2026. UFC rights seller TKO was down 10.3% through September 4, while cash takeover target WBD rose 262% through October 5. The dates differ, so these are not precise relative returns. But WBD was delisted after the October 6 close: its rise was convergence on a fixed cash consideration, not proof that content demand propagated along a supply chain. Whether Skydance can recover its average $1.1 billion annual UFC rights payment from Paramount+ subscriptions and post-merger cash flow needs the first combined results.

E-mart gained 44.7% in 2025 and was down 17.1% through October 20, 2026. Its U.S. subsidiary’s disclosed $1 billion buys 100% of a Cayman investment vehicle. That percentage is not Skydance ownership, and the ultimate share count has not been disclosed. Shinsegae Hwaseong’s Paramount theme-park licence dates to a separate 2024 contract. This investment alone does not establish Warner IP rights or incremental E-mart store revenue.

### Automakers and materials traders have different clocks

Toyota Motor gained 21.8% in 2025 and fell 8.5% through October 23, 2026. Across the same periods Toyota Tsusho returned +119.8% and +31.4%, while copper-foil maker SKC returned -25.4% and -29.8%. These observations do not show share-price gains moving in sequence from automaker demand to the trader and then the foil supplier.

Toyota Tsusho's FY2026 annual securities report separately reports JPY 2.316tn of recognized revenue from the Toyota Motor Corporation Group, 20.0% of total sales, and JPY 2.247tn of related-party automobile purchases from that group. The two measures have different accounting bases and neither is attributable to Toyota Motor alone. Toyota Tsusho also operates African vehicle distribution and metal recycling. SKC's Q2 2026 release recorded a quarterly high of KRW 254bn in copper-foil revenue but still reported an operating loss. Asahi Kasei separator deliveries to Toyota Tsusho are scheduled for mid-2027. Supplier-side catch-up remains a hypothesis; the present return gap cannot be converted directly into booked orders or realized profit.

Wells Fargo and Fiserv show a separate bank-and-payments clock. Wells Fargo gained 46.5% in 2024 and 35.6% in 2025, while Fiserv fell 67.3% in 2025. Wells Fargo Q3 average loans and deposits each grew 11%; Fiserv H1 revenue declined 3%. Bank growth alone does not establish a rebound for its processing supplier. The 2026 returns also have different observation dates: Wells Fargo was -10.1% through October 23, while Fiserv was -21.1% through September 4.

Verdict

Read from facts alone, the chain splits into two groups. The power execution layer and humanoid parts are early clocks still rising in 2026; substrates and memory are late clocks that already ran. The slowdown at the funding side is a leading warning laid over the top.

Where this reading diverges from broker consensus is the interesting part. Sell-side sees Korean battery materials (EcoPro BM, L&F) as high-upside buys, but the returns show they are still falling in 2026, at -46% and -16%. Buying the bottom and waiting for a clock that has not arrived collide on the same names. On the other side, Iridium after a +212% run and Samsung Electro-Mechanics at +613% face give-back, and here the consensus caution and the returns point the same way. The map neither buys nor sells. It shows which clocks have not run and which are done.

### Medical-device demand returned, but suppliers did not move at the same speed

Olympus rebounded 14.2% in 2026 after falling 21.4% in 2025, while FY2027 Q1 revenue grew 16.4%. Canon gained only 2.4% in 2026 and DuPont 10.5%. Hospital equipment demand reached imaging systems and sterile-packaging suppliers at different speeds. Olympus is both a recovery case on the off-chain medical-device clock and a reminder that a verified supply link does not synchronize equity timing.

### Home centers and their tool supplier followed different clocks

In 2021 Home Depot (+59.5%) and Lowe’s (+63.3%) rose ahead of supplier Masco (+29.6%). In 2022 Masco fell 32.1%, more than the retailers’ declines of 22.0% and 21.5%. The order reversed by October 21, 2026: Masco was up 19.1% and Stanley Black & Decker 31.4%, while Home Depot was down 6.7% and Lowe’s down 17.2%.

The share-price order is different from the sales order. Home Depot fiscal Q2 2026 sales rose 5.7%, but comparable sales grew 1.7%. Lowe’s total sales rose 8.3%, yet comps grew only 0.2%. In the same calendar quarter Masco sales fell 3% as North American volume weakened; Stanley Black & Decker sales were nearly flat. Masco’s $2.9 billion of sales to Home Depot is an FY2025 annual figure. Ferguson and Lowe’s each represented less than 10% of Masco sales, and 2026 customer-level sales remain undisclosed. To connect the supplier-share rebound with higher retailer procurement, North American volume and retailer comps need to improve together. Masco’s Q2 10-Q and FY2025 10-K set the baseline.

### Travel demand and platform commissions diverged

Trip.com gained 95.8% in 2024, lost 12.2% in 2025 and was down 34.7% through October 23, 2026. Q2 2026 net revenue rose 6%, but a RMB5.2bn Chinese antitrust charge drove a RMB2.4bn net loss. Booking revenue rose 8.1% and Expedia revenue 14% in the same quarter. Bookings can continue while platform terms and regulatory costs change shareholder economics. H World paid Trip.com RMB182m of commissions in 2025, down from RMB283m in 2024, even as Trip.com's aggregate accommodation revenue rose 21%. The travel-platform analysis traces the difference to the filings.

Chain vs street consensus

The chain position (returns) of each node in this analysis, set against street consensus. Where they diverge is the point to test.

Node	YTD	Consensus	Avg target upside
Vertiv	+73.2%	Buy 5 · Hold 0	+49%
Caterpillar	+10.5%	Buy 2 · Hold 3	+59%
GE Vernova	+54%	Buy 3 · Hold 2	+21%
Quanta Services	+48%	Buy 2 · Hold 0	+47%
Harmonic Drive Systems	+68.9%	Buy 2 · Hold 1	+53%
AMD	+183.9%	Buy 4 · Hold 0	+6%
NVIDIA	+23.2%	Buy 5 · Hold 0	+41%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics	+402.2%	Buy 7 · Hold 0	+61%
AT&S	+464.3%	Buy 2 · Hold 1	+3%
Ibiden	+149.3%	Buy 2 · Hold 1	-43%

Positions as of returns dated 2026-11-05

Clocks not yet run · room left

Name	Why	'24	'25	'26
Vertiv	Power and cooling, re-accelerating in 2026 on the long permit-and-build clock	+137%	+43%	+73%
Caterpillar	+60.3% in 2025 and +10.5% through Oct 30, 2026; Q3 Power Generation sales $3.421bn (+30%), with data-center-only revenue undisclosed	+25%	+60%	+11%
GE Vernova	Gas turbines and grid	·	+99%	+54%
Quanta Services	Grid construction	+47%	+34%	+48%
Harmonic Drive Systems	Humanoid reducers, starting up in 2026	+25%	-24%	+69%
Yaskawa Electric	Servo motors, the parts layer turning up	-18%	+10%	-1%
AMD	The compute follower, accelerating as the leader cools	-18%	+77%	+184%
Yunnan Energy New Material (SEMCORP)	The one battery-materials name tied to a recovering cell maker (CATL)	-29%	+76%	-5%
Legrand	Data-center exposure rising to 32%; stock +6.1% in 2026 after the 2025 surge	+12%	+39%	+6%
Hitachi	Grid orders and U.S. transformer expansion continue; shares +9.7% through Oct 22, 2026. Final machinery stake sold in August	+96%	+26%	+5%
POSCO Future M	All three cell customers are ahead while shares are -9.6% through Nov 2, 2026. Q3 Energy Materials revenue was KRW 460bn; KRW 7.1tn of new LFP agreements face their transmission test from 2027	-60%	+32%	-10%

Clocks that ran hardest · give-back risk

Name	Why	'24	'25	'26
Samsung Electro-Mechanics	Substrates and MLCC, the extreme of the 2026 concentration	-2%	+110%	+402%
AT&S	HBM substrates, triple digits two years running	-41%	+189%	+464%
Ibiden	FC-BGA substrates	-39%	+261%	+149%
ASE Technology	OSAT advanced packaging	+10%	+66%	+191%
Kioxia	Memory, decelerating past its extreme	·	+1082%	+155%
Nanya Technology	Legacy DRAM, sharply decelerating from +985 to +25	-56%	+985%	+64%
Satellogic	After -34.4% in 2025, +75.7% through Nov 2, 2026. HEO's three-year deal carries a seven-figure annual minimum after 1,600+ captures in the latest year; Merlin remains in commissioning	+63%	-34%	+76%
Cummins	About +49% in both 2024 and 2025, then -0.1% through Oct 30, 2026, despite +19% Power Systems sales and selection for its largest BESS deployment	+49%	+49%	0%
Hitachi Construction Machinery	After +44.5% in 2023 and +41.3% in 2025, +11.8% through Oct 30, 2026; H1 revenue +6.7%, adjusted operating income +25.0%, value-chain revenue at 47%	-9%	+41%	+12%
Equinix	After -16.9% in 2025, +34.3% through Oct 30, 2026; Q3 revenue +11%, annualized gross bookings +35%, planned cabinet delivery nearly 40% above the initial plan	+20%	-17%	+34%
Cerebras Systems	Down 68.8% from the first-day close through Nov 2, 2026. Despite Q2 revenue +74%, data-center execution and customer concentration were priced opposite TSMC (+50.3%)	·	·	-69%

Funding side cooling first · leading warning

Name	Why	'24	'25	'26
Microsoft	An AI capex funder, turned negative in 2026	+13%	+16%	+4%
Oracle	A Stargate funder, weak in 2026	+60%	+18%	-26%
Blackstone	Q3 AUM $1.3683tn and FRE $1.572bn, shares -21.6% in 2026; owns rights to 50% of future Leqvio royalties	+35%	-8%	-22%
KKR & Co.	AUM grew 16% while shares fell 32.0% in 2026 as the rates and valuation clock moved ahead of operations	+80%	-13%	-32%
Ares Management	AUM grew 17% while shares fell 25.0% in 2026 as the private-credit and rate clock cooled first	+53%	-6%	-25%

Outside the chain · a different clock

Name	Why	'24	'25	'26
Hyundai Motor Company	The automaker apex gained 49.1% in 2025, then fell 3.5% through Oct 30, 2026; Q3 operating profit rose 5.5% despite revenue -3.4%, with hybrids at 18.2% of sales	+11%	+49%	-3%
Hyundai Rotem Company	K2 prime: +290.1% in 2025, then -64.0% through Oct 23, 2026. Q3 profit fell 11.1%; the KRW 239.2bn Taoyuan rail award is future contract value.	+109%	+290%	-64%
Hyundai Wia	+104.9% in 2025 and -33.8% through Oct 30, 2026; Q3 thermal sales +160%, but mobility margin only 1.8%, with the defense transfer pending	-41%	+105%	-34%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners	Bottling and distribution middle layer, +21.2% in 2025 then +16.2% in 2026	+18%	+21%	+16%
The Coca-Cola Company	Pure defensive that rose as AI cooled (+22%)	+9%	+16%	+28%
Nestlé S.A.	Dividend defensive on a commodity and FX clock	-19%	-2%	+11%
Procter & Gamble	Staples defensive on a consumption and commodity clock	+17%	-12%	+5%
Nike	Discretionary, -30% against the chain	-29%	-14%	-44%
Uber	Gig and rate clock; 2023's +149% was the turn to profit	-2%	+36%	-7%
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton	Luxury discretionary, falling two years on China	-7%	-20%	-29%
Netflix	All-in on AWS, yet a subscription and content clock	+83%	+5%	-16%
JPMorgan Chase	Funds the boom yet runs on rates (+44% in 2024)	+44%	+37%	+13%
Berkshire Hathaway	Parks cash in T-bills and waits (+0.3% in 2026)	+27%	+11%	+1%
BlackRock	AUM reached $15.49T while shares gained 2.8% in 2026; diversification held up better than alternative managers	+29%	+7%	+3%
Orion	Asian overseas-volume clock, up three straight years 2024-26	+11%	+19%	+12%
Amorepacific	China consumption-recovery clock, rebounding via the Americas	+10%	+8%	-1%
CJ CheilJedang	A defensive that fell nearly every year on costs and weak demand	-16%	-9%	-12%
American Express	Premium consumption and credit clock, +60.3% in 2024 then -14.3% through October 16, 2026; GBTG was cashed out while Delta payments rose 14%	+60%	+26%	-14%
Ball Corporation	Beverage-can middle layer, +11.5% in 2026 amid mixed customer demand and aluminum pass-throughs	-3%	-2%	+12%
DuPont	Industrial and medical-materials clock after the Qnity spin, +10.5% in 2026	+1%	+29%	+11%
Olympus	Medical-device demand recovery, -21.4% in 2025 then +14.2% in 2026; uneven supplier propagation	+9%	-21%	+14%
Skydance Corporation	Media M&A and subscription clock: SKYD -46.4% through October 20; WBD +262% before the cash takeout and delisting	-28%	+30%	-46%
E-mart Inc.	Up 44.7% in 2025, down 17.1% in 2026. The $1B Cayman vehicle investment is still separate from Warner IP rights and retail sales	-15%	+45%	-17%
Simon Property Group	Mall landlord lagged tenants in 2025, but returns diverged again in 2026	+27%	+13%	+11%
Stanley Black & Decker	Home-center supplier, +31.4% through October 21, 2026; shares recovered despite flat revenue	-15%	-3%	+31%
The Home Depot, Inc.	-6.7% through October 21, 2026; Q2 comps +1.7%, a demand test against Masco’s falling volume	+15%	-9%	-7%
Masco	Home-center supplier, +19.1% through October 21, 2026; Q2 sales -3% diverged from the share recovery	+10%	-11%	+19%
Lowe's Companies, Inc.	-17.2% through October 21, 2026; Q2 comps +0.2%, with Masco procurement growth unverified	+13%	0%	-17%
Toyota Tsusho	+119.8% in 2025 and +31.4% through Oct 23, 2026; diverged from Toyota Motor (-8.5%) and SKC (-29.8%) on a mixed automotive-materials and African-distribution clock	-16%	+120%	+31%
Trip.com Group	+95.8% in 2024, -12.2% in 2025 and -34.7% through Oct 23, 2026. Booking demand diverged from regulatory costs and commission terms	+96%	-12%	-35%
Booking Holdings Inc.	+8.6% in 2025; Q2 2026 merchant revenue +15% and agency revenue -7%	+41%	+9%	-9%
Expedia Group, Inc.	+53.3% in 2025; Q2 2026 lodging revenue +13% and air revenue -13%	+23%	+53%	+6%
Wells Fargo	Bank and rates clock: +46.5% in 2024, +35.6% in 2025, then -10.1% through Oct 23, 2026; Q3 loans and deposits each grew 11%	+47%	+36%	-10%
Fiserv	Merchant-processing supplier to the bank, -67.3% in 2025 and -21.1% through Sep 4, 2026; H1 revenue -3%	+55%	-67%	-21%
Mitsubishi	+40.8% through Oct 27, 2026; $1.023B expected commitment for 30% of Copper World, whose first production is targeted for H2 2029	+19%	+42%	+41%
Mitsubishi Motors	-28.3% in 2025 and -4.3% through Oct 27, 2026. Four Renault OEM models confirmed, but Europe Q1 retail volume -40% and model revenue undisclosed	+22%	-28%	-4%
Nissan Motor	-32.8% through Oct 27, 2026. FY2026 Q1 operating profit JPY77.9B, yet full-year volume outlook was cut amid China weakness	-11%	-19%	-33%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals	RNAi technology owner: +69.0% in 2025 then -59.1% through Nov. 5, 2026; shares fell despite Leqvio sales +64% and Q3 total royalties +105%	+23%	+69%	-59%
Nippon Steel	A steel, raw-material and M&A clock: early gains in 2021-2023, +6.3% in 2026, with U.S. Steel cash conversion the next test	+3%	+14%	+6%

Update log

Nov 6, 2026 Confirmed Alnylam Q3 total royalties at $94.664M (+105%) and updated its return to -59.1% through November 5. The gap between rising Leqvio sales and the technology owner's stock widened.
Nov 3, 2026 Added Cerebras as an inversion in the compute middle layer. It fell 68.8% from its first-day close while sole foundry TSMC was +50.3% through October 9; execution and concentration risk created a different clock despite Q2 revenue growth of 74%.
Nov 3, 2026 Added POSCO Future M to the lagging battery-materials watch. It was -9.6% through Nov 2 while Samsung SDI, SK Innovation and LG Energy Solution were ahead; Q3 Energy Materials revenue of KRW 460bn and KRW 7.1tn of new LFP agreements face their transmission test when supply starts in 2027.
Nov 3, 2026 Updated Satellogic to +75.7% through November 2. Added HEO's three-year agreement through 2029, its seven-figure annual minimum and 1,600+ captures in the latest year, strengthening recurring-revenue evidence on the space demand side.
Nov 2, 2026 Added private Hyundai Transys to the automotive-components layer. Affiliates were 86.6% of its KRW 14.839tn FY2025 revenue, while Hyundai Motor’s 2025 gain of 49.1% was followed by Hyundai Wia lagging at -33.8% in 2026.
Nov 2, 2026 Recalculated Hyundai Wia to +104.9% in 2025 and -33.8% through Oct 30, adding Q3 thermal growth of 160% and a 1.8% mobility margin. Updated Hyundai Motor to -3.5% on the same date.
Nov 1, 2026 Reverified Caterpillar’s GnCenergy procurement link in Korean and English, and added Equinix Q3 revenue of $2.571bn and a +34.3% return to update the clock gap between data-center sites and generator supply.
Nov 1, 2026 Added Nippon Steel as a steel, raw-material and M&A clock, reflecting its 2021-2023 lead, +6.3% in 2026, 20% Blackwater interest and U.S. Steel cash-flow test.
Oct 31, 2026 Added Hitachi Q2 Energy revenue growth of 28%, order growth of 47%, and its 5.1% return through October 30. Strong grid execution and a slower equity clock leave its existing position unchanged.
Oct 31, 2026 Added Hitachi Construction Machinery's October 29 interim filing and +11.8% return through October 30. Added its 47% value-chain revenue mix and the Whitehaven full-node suitability finding to the equipment and service clock.
Oct 31, 2026 Added Cummins' largest BESS deployment selection, Whitehaven primary evidence and Caterpillar Q3 generation sales. Power demand persisted while 2026 returns diverged at -0.1% for Cummins and +10.5% for Caterpillar.
Oct 29, 2026 Cross-checked Novartis Q3 Leqvio sales, Alnylam Q2 total royalties and Blackstone Q3 AUM, adding the sales, rights and equity-timing gap in the life-sciences royalty chain.
Oct 28, 2026 Updated the automotive control with Mitsubishi and Nissan October 27 returns and FY2026 Q1 results, separating Renault OEM supply from the decline in European retail volume.
Oct 28, 2026 Added Mitsubishi’s Copper World FID and +40.8% return through Oct 27 to the resource-investment clock, distinguishing committed capital from production targeted after 2029.
Oct 26, 2026 Updated Satellogic to +104.8% through October 23 and added the first Merlin launch and HEO follow-on non-Earth imaging. Kept Officina purchase size distinct from the satellite service still in commissioning.
Oct 25, 2026 Added Rotem’s 11.1% Q3 operating-profit decline and KRW 239.2bn Taoyuan rail award to the defense and rail clock, keeping contract value separate from recognized revenue.
Oct 26, 2026 Updated Hyundai Motor’s return to +1.1% through October 23 and separated Wia’s KRW 367.65bn Transys purchases from Hyundai Motor’s undisclosed bilateral purchases.
Oct 25, 2026 Added the Hyundai Wia–Hyundai Rotem defense transfer to the auto and defense clock, refreshed returns through October 23 and distinguished the supplier relationship before and after closing.
Oct 25, 2026 Added the Wells Fargo–Fiserv bank and payments clock, separating bank loan and deposit growth from the processor’s H1 revenue decline and flagging different 2026 share-return dates.
Oct 25, 2026 Updated Trip.com’s 2026 return to -34.7% through October 23 and separated Q2 travel-platform revenue growth from Trip.com’s antitrust charge in the off-chain view.
Oct 24, 2026 Compared Toyota Tsusho +31.4%, Toyota Motor -8.5% and SKC -29.8% through the same October 23, 2026 close. Distinguished 20.0% Toyota-group recognized revenue from automobile purchase transactions and noted Asahi Kasei separator deliveries scheduled for 2027.
Oct 24, 2026 Updated Caterpillar’s 2026 return to +20.6% through October 23 and added Atlas Energy’s incremental 283 MW equipment commitment outside the existing agreement. Separated capacity from recognized revenue and aligned the comparison date with Cummins.
Oct 24, 2026 Updated Hitachi Construction Machinery and Cummins returns through October 23 (+7.3% and +3.0%). Added Whitehaven’s new Daunia excavator as equipment-demand evidence while noting that its engine maker remains undisclosed.
Oct 23, 2026 Updated Hitachi’s 2026 return to +9.7% through Oct 22. Added the planned Mississippi transformer factory and final disposal of Hitachi Construction Machinery shares, separating the grid business from the former mining-equipment equity link.
Oct 23, 2026 Reverified the Cummins and Caterpillar generation clocks. Updated Cummins’s 2026 return to +2.7% through Oct 22 and added the Circe gas-generator agreement, GnCenergy engine procurement from both makers, and Caterpillar Q2 Power Generation application growth of 29%.
Oct 23, 2026 Rewrote the home-center supplier section using aligned returns and Masco Q2 2026 volume data; added Masco and Lowe’s to the position table.
Oct 22, 2026 Confirmed the direct Lowe’s–Masco supply link and aligned returns to one date: Lowe’s -17.2% versus Masco +19.1%, while Lowe’s comparable sales grew only 0.2%.
Oct 22, 2026 Updated Home Depot’s return to -6.6% through October 21; compared Lowe’s +0.2% comparable sales with Masco’s $2.9B of 2025 sales to Home Depot to separate supplier-share recovery from operating demand.
Oct 22, 2026 Added Stanley Black & Decker, with 27% of 2025 sales from Home Depot and Lowe’s, as a comparator; separated its 2026 share recovery from flat quarterly revenue.
Oct 21, 2026 Added Simon’s retail-landlord clock as a comparator: landlord leadership in 2021, tenant leadership in 2025, and divergent 2026 returns, with bilateral TJX/Ross rent undisclosed.
Oct 21, 2026 Added E-mart at -17.1% to the media-retail comparator. Separated the $1B purchase of 100% of a Cayman vehicle from undisclosed Skydance ownership, and the 2024 Paramount licence from unverified Warner IP rights.
Oct 21, 2026 Added Skydance as an off-chain media comparator: SKYD -46.4%, UFC rights seller TKO -10.3%, and cash target WBD +262% before delisting, separating contract cash flow from takeover-event returns.
Oct 20, 2026 Reverified Mitsubishi Corporation as a resource-and-LNG clock split: +35.8% in 2026 versus -4.3% for Mitsubishi Motors and -24.7% for Nissan, while LNG Canada Phase 2 FID doubles Mitsubishi's attributable offtake from 2.1 to 4.2 mtpa.
Oct 20, 2026 Reverified Mitsubishi Motors as a split automaker-recovery comparator. Shares were -4.3% in 2026, and despite JPY241.4 billion of Nissan parts purchases, Foxconn (+16.3%) and Mitsubishi Corporation (+14.7%) diverged from Nissan (-24.7%), so no layer or position changed.
Oct 20, 2026 Reflected the Alnylam re-verification. Separated the cash flow from $1.198 billion of Novartis Leqvio sales to $174.022 million of Alnylam royalty revenue and Blackstone’s 50% royalty interest. Product and royalty cash flows grew while Alnylam shares fell 41.3% through October 19, 2026, so no layer or position changed.
Oct 19, 2026 Added Kuraray as a materials-led surge and reversal comparator. It rose 50.1% in 2023 and 51.0% in 2024, fell 24.7% in 2025, then recovered to +15.5% in 2026, confirming uneven propagation to Nitto Denko and PFAS water-treatment demand.
Oct 19, 2026 Updated American Express to -14.3% through October 16, 2026. Reflected the roughly $1.499B GBTG cash exit and $6.9B of nine-month Delta remuneration (+14%), separating investment realization from partnership-payment growth.
Oct 19, 2026 Updated Satellogic to +105.3% through October 16, 2026. Verified the 4.7% Officina Stellare stake and $0.2M of first-half purchases, capturing both a real supply tie and its still-small operating transmission.
Oct 18, 2026 Recalculated Hyundai Motor from daily closes, correcting returns to +49.1% in 2025 and +6.7% through October 16, 2026. Added the automaker apex to the comparator group with Pune capacity of 170,000 and a 320,000 target for 2030.
Oct 18, 2026 Updated Hyundai Wia’s 2026 return to -42.3% as of 2026-10-16 and reverified K2/K9 components plus Kia PV5 thermal-management production with the Korean and English 2026 sustainability reports. Its defense-supplier give-back position is unchanged.
Oct 18, 2026 Added Ares to the funding-side warning group. AUM and fee-paying AUM grew 17% while shares fell 25.0% in 2026; BlackRock showed the diversification contrast at $15.49T of AUM and +2.8%.
Oct 17, 2026 Added KKR to the funding-side warning group. AUM grew 16% and fee-related earnings 37%, yet shares fell 32.0% in 2026, separating operations from the rates and valuation clock.
Oct 15, 2026 Added Hitachi to the grid-laggard watch. Shares are up 9.5% in 2026 while FY2026 Q1 Energy revenue rose 37% and orders 87%, separating operating and stock clocks.
Oct 15, 2026 Added Cummins as a split between operations and the stock in the data-center power-execution layer. Shares slowed to +11% in 2026 while Q2 Power Systems sales reached $2.3 billion (+19%) at a 24.5% margin.
Oct 15, 2026 Added Hitachi Construction Machinery to the construction-and-mining equipment clock. Returns of +44.5% in 2023, -9.0% in 2024, +41.3% in 2025 and +15.1% in 2026 show customer capex alternating with cost and currency drivers.
Oct 14, 2026 Added Olympus as a medical-device demand-recovery comparator. It rebounded from -21.4% in 2025 to +14.2% in 2026, while Canon gained 2.4% and DuPont 10.5%, showing uneven supplier propagation.
Oct 14, 2026 Added DuPont as a post-Qnity industrial and medical-materials comparator. DuPont gained 10.5% in 2026 versus Qnity's 55.3%, widening the post-spin gap in AI electronics-materials exposure.
Oct 13, 2026 Added Ball as the consumer-packaging middle-layer comparator. Monster was +13.8% in 2026 while Constellation was -9.2%; Ball gained 11.5% as aluminum pass-throughs and volume recovery offset mixed demand.
Oct 13, 2026 Added Blackstone to the funding-side warning group. Q2 2026 AUM reached $1.3463 trillion and LTM FRE $6.35 billion, yet shares fell 23.5%, separating operating growth from the rate and valuation clock.
Oct 12, 2026 Added Alnylam to the RNAi commercialization watch. Shares reversed from +69.0% in 2025 to -33.1% in 2026 even as Q2 product revenue grew 74%, separating the stock from operating momentum.
Oct 12, 2026 Added CCEP as the bottling and distribution middle layer in the off-chain consumer defensive group. Its +21.2% in 2025 and +16.2% in 2026 were steadier than the shifting leadership between Coca-Cola and Monster.
Oct 12, 2026 Added American Express to the consumer-credit clock. It ran early at +60.3% in 2024 and +26.0% in 2025, then fell 15.8% in 2026 even as Q2 Card Member spending grew 9%, separating transaction volume from the stock.
Oct 11, 2026 Added Satellogic to the volatile space-microcap watch. It rebounded +175.4% in 2026 after -34.4% in 2025; the Palantir link and defense wins are verified, but quarterly revenue remains $15.9M.
Oct 11, 2026 Reflected the Hyundai Motor re-verification: added its 41.13% Hyundai Transys stake and seat/hybrid-drivetrain supply link. Hyundai Motor corrected 34.2% in 2026 after gaining 158.8% in 2025, while suppliers Samsung Electronics, onsemi and SK On remained positive.
Oct 11, 2026 Added Hyundai Wia as an artillery-supplier comparator that followed the defense primes: +125.1% in 2025, followed by a -39.8% give-back in 2026.
Oct 10, 2026 Added Legrand as a lagging watch in the AI data-center supply layer: 32% data-center exposure expected in 2026, while the stock at +6.1% trails Equinix (+37.3%).
Jul 12, 2026 29 promotion batches: researched nodes 313 to 425 (112 promotions). The AI datacenter chain is complete end to end - from fab inputs (industrial gases, RF power, gas delivery) through power (generation-transformer-cable-distribution-cooling-fuel) to AI server ODMs and brands - across six regions, with clean integrity throughout.
Jul 12, 2026 Large-scale baseline promotions: researched nodes 313 to 379 (14 batches, 66 promotions), extending the graph beyond semiconductors into AI power/cooling, automotive electrification, materials, K-defense/shipbuilding and biotech.
Jul 11, 2026 Added the 1,344-node universe (1,031 baseline) as the denominator for relative attention. Strengthening cycle landed 25 new edges (Amazon-Fabrinet, Modine's $4B cooling agreement, Unitest HBM4 testers) and some 30 filing-grade concentration figures, sharpening the evidence behind each layer clock.
Jul 10, 2026 Added consensus-residual analysis: upside is inverse to returns (56% bottom quartile vs 27% top), with the flipped-sign layer in equipment and materials.
Jul 10, 2026 Added two analyses (optical laser bottleneck; China export-control clock). All articles now carry a live chain-vs-consensus block and a citable one-line stat.
Jul 9, 2026 Article reinforcement batch. Two new pieces: 'Capital that funds the boom runs on the rate clock' (capital layer split out) and 'Turn your assets into AI infrastructure and your clock changes' (miners, a telco and a search company converting). Five pieces (three space, cathode, European primes) deepened to house spec with ~20 stale YTD figures corrected. The finale 'Many clocks' gains a section on the three off-chain clocks (capital, consumption, conversion).
Jul 8, 2026 Reflected the s110 ripple deepening. Wired thin component/materials nodes into the compute layer: Illumina→NVIDIA/Amazon, Monolithic Power→AMD, Analog Devices→Apple/Tesla/NVIDIA. Positions and returns unchanged (only ripple paths widened); thin nodes fell 32 to 28.
Jul 8, 2026 Absorbed the four nodes of the Korea/Asia consumer batch (s109). Added Amorepacific (China), Orion (overseas volume) and CJ CheilJedang (costs, weak demand) to 'outside the chain, a different clock'. SK Telecom, a carrier, is the one name in the consumer batch to catch the AI clock via GPUaaS, AI data centers and an SK hynix alliance (+37.5% in 2025). Wired to real nodes through retail channels (Coupang, E-mart, Costco, Walmart, Amazon), creating no new isolation.
Jul 8, 2026 Absorbed the four banking and asset-management nodes of finance batch 2. Added the capital layer to 'outside the chain, a different clock': JPMorgan and BofA, which fund the boom, run on rates; Berkshire waits in T-bills; BlackRock supplies AI capital yet lags. Sellers get revenue, users a cost, funders a rate clock. Wired Visa and Mastercard to their issuing banks, cutting isolated (deg0) nodes from 7 to 1.
Jul 5, 2026 Re-verified all figures against the 2026-07-03 returns. Updated the node count to about 300 and corrected the Tesla application-side figure from -13 to -12%. Confirmed the cited numbers are current across every layer (power, humanoid, substrates, memory, funding, off-chain).
Jul 5, 2026 Split the off-chain consumption spectrum into a dedicated analysis, 'Consumption does not run on one clock' (defensive to discretionary to luxury to cloud-dependent to payments and retail), separating it from the overloaded thesis piece so each stands alone, and linked to it from this synthesis.
Jul 5, 2026 Expanded six nodes in consumer batch 4 (luxury, media, travel, autos, food). Surfaced that full cloud dependence (Netflix, Airbnb, Disney on AWS) does not put a name on the AI clock; dependence and cycle are separate. LVMH -8, PepsiCo +3 (Coca-Cola's pair), Toyota +63% in 2023 (hybrids and the yen, not AI).
Jul 5, 2026 Expanded the off-chain consumer and finance set past twelve nodes and surfaced it as a dedicated 'outside the chain, a different clock' group. Pure defensives rose as AI cooled in 2026 (Coca-Cola +22, Nestlé +20, P&G +7), while discretionary Nike moved opposite the chain at -30%. Data-center financier Blackstone was -19%.
Jul 5, 2026 Reflected the lithium and minerals layer. Below the materials tier, the clock changes from customer to the lithium price, a commodity cycle (Ganfeng -56% in 2023 to +108% in 2025).
Jul 5, 2026 Reflected the battery electrolyte and copper-foil layer (Enchem, Chunbo, Tinci, Lotte Energy Materials, SKC). The customer-sets-the-clock pattern is confirmed one layer deeper: China's Tinci, on CATL's recovery, was +33.5% while Korea's Enchem fell for a third straight year at -75%.
Jul 5, 2026 First publication. Cycle position by chain layer, based on 2026 year-to-date returns.

← All analyses