S&P 500 · Sportswear · Discretionary, China & inventory clock
Nike
Nike is the world's largest sportswear brand, selling through wholesale and its own Nike Direct channel of stores and digital. It owns no factories and relies on contract manufacturing centered on Vietnam and Indonesia. Its results turn on discretionary spending, Chinese demand and the inventory cycle, and sit apart from the semiconductor AI chain. FY2025 revenue was $46.3B, down 10% year on year.
NKE Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers· 1 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Nike is directly linked to 1 companies (0 supply, 1 revenue relationships) and reaches 14 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 5 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · $46.3B (FY2025, ended 2025-05-31, -10% YoY)
- Customer concentration · Tied to discretionary spending and Chinese demand. Owns no factories, relying on contract manufacturing. FY2025 Greater China revenue -12% currency-neutral, inventory about $8.9B
- Segments · Wholesale · Nike Direct · Converse and other
Revenue from
- 도매 유통사 (리테일러) High confidence· Amount $25.9B · FY2025 · wholesale revenue
Wholesale to retailers is the largest revenue stream. FY2025 wholesale revenue was $25.9B (-7%), tied to discretionary spending.Mentions EN Goldman Sachs Published Jun 30, 2026: Nike analyst consensus (Buy; Goldman $85, Morgan Stanley $70)Mentions KO Hankyung Published Dec 19, 2025: Nike beats on quarterly revenue but falls on Converse and China weakness - 소비자 (나이키 다이렉트: 매장·디지털) High confidence· Amount $18.8B · FY2025 · Nike Direct revenue
Sells directly to consumers through owned stores and digital (Nike Direct). FY2025 Nike Direct was $18.8B (-13%), with digital down 20%. - Amazon High confidence
Nike returned to Amazon in 2025 as a direct vendor after leaving in 2019; Amazon sources Nike products directly to sell, a renewed wholesale and digital revenue channel for Nike.Confirms EN Retail Dive Published May 27, 2025: Nike to return to Amazon, expanding digital wholesale accounts - 중화권 시장 (Greater China) Medium confidence· Market share -12% · FY2025 · Greater China revenue change, currency-neutral
Greater China is a separately managed key market and a source of earnings swings. FY2025 Greater China revenue fell 12% currency-neutral, making the Chinese consumption clock a key watch point for Nike.Confirms KO Hankyung Published Dec 19, 2025: Nike beats on quarterly revenue but falls on Converse and China weakness
Pays to
- 위탁생산 OEM (베트남·인도네시아·중국) High confidence· Market share 51% · FY2025 · Vietnam share of footwear production
Nike owns no factories and relies on contract manufacturing. In FY2025 footwear was made roughly 51% in Vietnam, 28% in Indonesia and 17% in China, across 97 factories run by 15 contract manufacturers, with the top four accounting for about 59% of footwear.Confirms EN The Investor Published Jul 24, 2025: Vietnam remains Nike's biggest manufacturing hub for 3rd year in row - 원자재·마케팅(수요창출) (비공개) Medium confidence
Product materials and brand marketing (demand creation) are major costs. As a branded consumer company its marketing spend is large, with some line-item detail not broken out.
Investors
- Class A controlling holders (incl. founding family, supervoting) High confidence
A dual-class structure of non-traded Class A (supervoting) and listed Class B (NKE), where a handful of Class A holders (16, including the founding family) control the board — founder control, insulated from activist and short-term pressure, underpins long-horizon brand and channel decisions. Under a June-2022 four-year $18B buyback ($12B executed by May 2025) plus dividends, it returned $5.3B to shareholders in FY2025.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datadog | lead2 | +80.9 | -58.7 | +65.1 | +17.7 | -4.8 | +89.4 |
| Palo Alto Networks | lead2 | +56.7 | -24.8 | +111.3 | +23.4 | +1.2 | +76.9 |
| CrowdStrike | lead2 | -3.3 | -48.6 | +142.5 | +34 | +37 | +59.7 |
| Illumina | lead2 | +2.8 | -46.9 | -31.1 | -1.3 | -1.8 | +45 |
| Snowflake | lead2 | +20.4 | -57.6 | +38.6 | -22.4 | +42.1 | +19.2 |
| Airbnb Inc | lead2 | · | -48.6 | +59.2 | -3.5 | +3.3 | +9.5 |
| Schrodinger | lead2 | -56 | -46.3 | +91.5 | -46.1 | -7.3 | -7.8 |
| MercadoLibre, Inc. | lead2 | -19.5 | -37.2 | +85.7 | +8.2 | +18.5 | -8 |
| Uber | lead2 | -17.8 | -41 | +149 | -2 | +35.5 | -8.8 |
| The Walt Disney Company | lead2 | -14.5 | -43.9 | +4.3 | +24.4 | +3.3 | -15.3 |
| Coupang | lead2 | · | -49.9 | +10.1 | +35.8 | +7.3 | -20.3 |
| Netflix | lead2 | +11.4 | -51.1 | +65.1 | +83.1 | +5.2 | -21.7 |
| Amazon | lead1 | +2.4 | -49.6 | +80.9 | +44.4 | +5.2 | +6.3 |
| Nike | node | +18.7 | -29 | -6 | -29.1 | -13.8 | -29.3 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
Nike's thesis is a branded consumer good running on three clocks — discretionary spending, China and inventory — unrelated to the semiconductor AI chain. FY2025 revenue -10% reflects weakness in owned Nike Direct/digital (-20%) and Greater China (-12%), while normalizing ~$8.9B of inventory pressured margins. With no owned factories (outsourced mainly to Vietnam/Indonesia), it counters tariff, FX and China risk with brand marketing. Watch the post-destocking Direct recovery, the China consumption clock, and channel shifts like the Amazon re-entry. Graph propagation: contract OEMs are cost, while wholesale, Direct and Amazon are distribution channels tied to discretionary spending.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 3 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $52 · Price $44.37 (07-10) · Upside +17%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial · Joseph Civello | Buy | $47 | Jul 3, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Bank of America Securities · Lorraine Hutchinson | Neutral | $47 | Jul 1, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Bernstein · Aneesha Sherman | Outperform | $72 | Jul 1, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Stifel Nicolaus · Peter McGoldrick | Hold | $45 | Jul 1, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Telsey Advisory · Cristina Fernandez | Hold | $47 | Jul 1, 2026 | Report ↗ |
Buy at $47, positive on inventory normalization and reengaging North America wholesale.
Analyses covering this node
- Consumption does not run on one clock: staples, discretionary, luxury diverge Jul 5, 2026
- AI money stays inside the chain: consumption and capital run on other clocks Jul 5, 2026