NASDAQ · Physical-AI demand apex · Optimus humanoid

Tesla

An EV and energy company that aims — via the Optimus humanoid — to be the demand apex of Physical AI, a demand hub pulling in a vast component chain of reducers, motors, AI chips and batteries. On its Q3 2025 call it set a 1M-units/year Optimus target and a ~$20k unit price at scale and pre-announced a mass-production Gen 3 in 2026, and that target front-loads upstream demand for Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco reducers and Nidec motors. But with EVs — its current revenue core — in a sales slowdown, the key question is whether the pace of FSD, robotaxi and Optimus can offset EV maturation.

TSLA Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers· 3 recurring

Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Tesla is directly linked to 14 companies (14 supply, 0 revenue relationships) and reaches 65 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 17 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).

Annual return · 2026-07-10'21+49.8%'22-65%'23+101.7%'24+62.5%'25+11.4%YTD-9.3%
Money in ▸automotive · energy (consumers · enterprises)●Optimus · robotaxi · FSD (new)◐
TeslaOptimus 1M units/yr target
▸ Money outPanasonic Energy●capacity 41 GWhBYD●capacity 8 GWh/yrLG Energy Solution●Contract value $4.3BHarmonic Drive Systems●CATL●Samsung SDI◐deal value $2.1BAlbemarle◐Amount 1.2 USD10억Nidec◐Nabtesco◐NVIDIA◐Samsung Electronics◐Ganfeng Lithium◐Analog Devices◐화낙◐Batteries · materials (undisclosed)○

Financials & Segments

  • Total revenue · Optimus 1M units/yr target ($20k)
  • Customer concentration · Physical-AI demand apex; sources reducers, motors, AI chips.
  • Segments · EVs · Energy/storage · Optimus humanoid

Revenue from

  • automotive · energy (consumers · enterprises) High confidence
    EV and energy-storage sales — the current revenue core, though EVs are in a sales slowdown.
    Confirms EN Tesla Published Oct 22, 2025: Tesla company/IR (Nasdaq TSLA)
  • Optimus · robotaxi · FSD (new) Medium confidence
    Optimus humanoid, robotaxi and FSD — a new demand axis targeting 1M units/yr at ~$20k.
    Confirms EN eWeek Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus 1M-unit, Gen 3 roadmap

Pays to

  • Panasonic Energy High confidence· capacity 41 GWh · 네바다 · Nevada 2170 cell supply
    Long-standing core battery supplier; Tesla buys 2170 cylindrical cells from Nevada and Kansas.
    Confirms EN SNE Research Published Jan 6, 2026: Global EV Battery Usage, Jan-Nov 2025
    Confirms EN Panasonic North America Published Jul 14, 2025: Panasonic Energy Begins Mass Production at New Kansas Battery Factory, ~32 GWh
    Confirms EN Electrek Published Jan 15, 2024: Panasonic to soon make new batteries for Tesla
  • BYD High confidence· capacity 8 GWh/yr · 2025~ · FinDreams ESS LFP cell supply
    Sources LFP ESS cells (up to 8 GWh/yr) from BYD's FinDreams unit for the Shanghai Megafactory.
    Confirms EN CnEVPost Published Jun 5, 2024: BYD FinDreams unit to supply battery cells to Tesla Shanghai Megafactory
  • LG Energy Solution High confidence· Contract value $4.3B · 2027~2030 · LFP ESS cell supply (Megapack 3)
    Supplies LFP prismatic ESS cells for Megapack 3 ($4.3B, 2027–2030) and 2170 cylindrical cells.
    Confirms EN Electrek Published Mar 17, 2026: Tesla-LG Energy Solution $4.3 billion LFP battery deal for Megapack confirmed
    Confirms EN SNE Research Published Jan 6, 2026: Global EV Battery Usage, Jan-Nov 2025
  • Harmonic Drive Systems High confidence
    Sources Harmonic Drive harmonic reducers for Optimus joints.
    Confirms EN eWeek Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus 1M-unit, Gen 3 roadmap
    Confirms EN Humanoid Guide Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus specs and roadmap
    Confirms EN Tesla Published Oct 22, 2025: Tesla company/IR (Nasdaq TSLA)
    Confirms EN Morgan Stanley Published Jan 1, 2025: Mapping the humanoid robot value chain
  • CATL High confidence
    Sources EV and robot batteries from CATL.
    Confirms EN CnEVPost Published Feb 4, 2026: 2025 EV battery share: CATL 39.2%
    Confirms EN SNE Research Published Jan 6, 2026: Global EV Battery Usage, Jan-Nov 2025
  • Samsung SDI Medium confidence· deal value $2.1B · 2026~ · ESS LFP cell supply (media report)
    Reported to supply ~$2.1B of LFP ESS cells for Megapack/Powerwall (from ~2026, Kokomo).
    Confirms EN KED Global Published Nov 3, 2025: Samsung SDI set to supply ESS batteries to Tesla
  • Albemarle Medium confidence· Amount 1.2 USD10억 · 다년 공급계약 · Tesla lithium supply agreement (reported)
    Tesla sources battery lithium from Albemarle (a reported supply deal worth about $1.2 billion).
    Confirms EN MineListings Published Apr 12, 2026: Tesla's $1.2 Billion Lithium Supply Deal with Albemarle
  • Nidec Medium confidence
    Sources Nidec motors and actuators for Optimus joints.
    Confirms EN eWeek Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus 1M-unit, Gen 3 roadmap
    Confirms EN Humanoid Guide Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus specs and roadmap
    Confirms EN Morgan Stanley Published Jan 1, 2025: Mapping the humanoid robot value chain
  • Nabtesco Medium confidence
    Sources Nabtesco RV reducers for Optimus joints.
    Confirms EN eWeek Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus 1M-unit, Gen 3 roadmap
    Confirms EN Humanoid Guide Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus specs and roadmap
    Confirms EN Morgan Stanley Published Jan 1, 2025: Mapping the humanoid robot value chain
  • NVIDIA Medium confidence
    Uses NVIDIA GPUs for AI training and some inference (beyond Dojo).
    Confirms EN Humanoid Guide Published Jan 1, 2026: Tesla Optimus specs and roadmap
  • Samsung Electronics Medium confidence
    Sources FSD/infotainment chips and displays from Samsung.
    Confirms EN Tesla Published Oct 22, 2025: Tesla company/IR (Nasdaq TSLA)
    Confirms EN Isaiah Research Published Aug 7, 2025: Tesla AI6 Marks Samsung's Largest Foundry Win – $16.5B
  • Ganfeng Lithium Medium confidence
    Tesla has sourced battery-grade lithium hydroxide from Ganfeng Lithium, under a 2022-2024 three-year contract following a 2018-2020 deal.
    Confirms EN MINING.COM Published Nov 1, 2021: Ganfeng Lithium lands three-year supply deal with Tesla
  • Analog Devices Medium confidence
    Two ADI audio processors are inside Tesla's FSD Computer HW4.0 (teardown). ADI's flagship automotive BMS win is GM (non-node); the Tesla content is FSD audio.
    Confirms EN TechInsights Published Jul 1, 2023: Teardown of Tesla FSD Computer HW4.0 (ADI audio processors)
  • 화낙 Medium confidence
    Supplies robots for Tesla's Fremont lines: ~600 FANUC robots before the Model 3 ramp (confirmed by FANUC America), deployed alongside KUKA on ~1,000-robot lines (values undisclosed).
    Confirms KO ZDNet Korea Published Apr 30, 2021: Tesla deploys KUKA robots at its German plant
    Confirms EN Electrek Published Sep 1, 2016: Tesla Model 3: robot supplier vows on-time line bring-up
  • Batteries · materials (undisclosed) Low confidence
    Batteries, cells and materials.
    Confirms EN Tesla Published Oct 22, 2025: Tesla company/IR (Nasdaq TSLA)

Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)

Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.

CompanyChain'21'22'23'24'25YTD
Teslanode+49.8-65+101.7+62.5+11.4-9.3
Harmonic Drive Systemsbenef1-42.7-2.5-16.1+24.9-23.8+132.3
Panasonic Energybenef1-5.7-1.6+20.1+16.6+36.2+113.2
Nabtescobenef1-22.8+9-22.3+0.4+54.1+30.9
Nidecbenef1-26.8-28.4-21.9-1.7-17.4+20.6
FANUCbenef1-16.5+4.4-8.1+15.6+37.7+15.3
NVIDIAbenef1+125.5-50.3+239+171.2+38.9+13.3
Samsung SDIbenef1-19+15.8-45.7-40.2+75.7+11.3
CATLbenef1+67.4-21.4-40.6+74.5+39.4+1.2
Ganfeng Lithiumbenef1+12-17.4-56.1+0.1+108.3-21.8
Kioxiabenef2····+1082.1+260.5
Micron Technologybenef2+24.2-45.9+71.9-1+240.2+243.3
Murata Manufacturingbenef2-14-11.7+24.7-16.5+29.9+217.4
Nan Ya PCBbenef2+110.6-46.7-0.5-38.3+188.2+213.4
ASE Technologybenef2+38.3-12.8+60.9+10.1+65.6+167.6
Nebius Groupbenef2····+202.2+162.4
Astera Labsbenef2····+25.6+148.2
Ibidenbenef2+30.4-19.6+51.6-38.6+261+147.1
SK hynixbenef2-0.4-25.6+53.9+48.6+361.1+140.3
Unimicronbenef2+133.5-30.2+35.2-19.7+175.7+131.6
Corningbenef2+5.9-11.6-1.2+60.6+87.8+118.8
Lumentumbenef2+11.6-50.7+0.5+60.1+339.1+117.6
LS ELECTRICbenef2-19.2+11.4+37.4+234.2+145+79.6
Samsung Electronicsbenef2-9-14.2+20.9-26.4+212.9+77.9
onsemibenef2+107.5-8.2+33.9-24.5-14.1+77.2
Coherentbenef2-10-48.6+24+117.6+94.8+75.8
Eoptolinkbenef2-10.1-27.7+136.6+197+368.8+74.9
InnoLightbenef2-30.7-18.3+253.7+12+468.1+68.8
Keysight Technologiesbenef2+56.3-17.2-7+1+26.5+58.5
Delta Electronicsbenef2-3.4+10.4-0.3+59.2+183.8+54.9
Monolithic Powerbenef2+35.5-27.8+79.8-5.6+54.5+49.8
Analog Devicesbenef2+21-4.9+23.4+8.8+29.8+46.7
TSMCbenef2+12.1-36.7+42.3+92.6+55.9+43.6
ABBbenef2+23.9+7.3+18.9+39+36.1+27.2
Asahi Kaseibenef2-1.1-9.3+18.7-2.9+47.1+24.6
Pegatronbenef2-5.9+0.6+35.3+21.2-23.8+24
Luxshare Precisionbenef2-11.9-30.2-21.2+58.8+29.3+20.6
Digital Realtybenef2+30.7-41+39.9+35.9-10.1+18.2
Amphenolbenef2+34.9-12+31.5+41.3+96.1+18.1
Wistronbenef2+7.9+9.7+272.7-1.6+22.7+14.8
Yunnan Energy New Material (SEMCORP)benef2+92.8-38.6-72.6-29.2+76.4+7.5
King Yuan Electronics (KYEC)benef2+26.7-7.7+132.4+38.6+171+4.2
Umicorebenef2-27.5+5.9-37.1-51.4+111.6+2.4
Tinci Materialsbenef2+68.3+5.6-61.4-0.7+124.2-1
BlackRockbenef2+29.4-20.4+17.9+29.3+6.6-2.1
Lotte Energy Materialsbenef2+31.5-32.9-49.3-30+75.8-8.4
TE Connectivitybenef2+35.1-27.7+24.6+3.5+61.1-11.3
Ronbay Technologybenef2+96.6-39.1-63.6+12.3+47.7-12.9
Recursion Pharmaceuticalsbenef2·-55+27.9-31.4-39.5-13
LG Chembenef2-29+9.7-36.6-45.3+31.2-14.4
SKCbenef2+18.1-31.9-19.7+104.3-25.4-19.2
L&Fbenef2+139.2+22.4-30.3-38.6+43.4-20.4
Sumitomo Metal Miningbenef2+20.5+5.4-19.4-10.2+168.7-20.9
Cosmo Advanced Materials & Technologybenef2+121.4+48.7+128.9-60.4-3.4-22.5
POSCO Future Mbenef2-17.7+97.6+16.3-43.6+56.5-32
Advanced Nano Productsbenef2+56.8+66.4+13.9-30.9+5.5-32.8
BYD Electronicsbenef2-56.1+16-0.4+60.6-19.4-34.4
Chunbobenef2+40.4-7.3-65-55.6+59.1-37.6
PNT (People & Technology)benef2+62.2+11.6-17.8+12.2+31.1-39.8
EcoPro BMbenef2+79.2+23.9+113.5-38.6+77.1-47.6
Enchembenef2·-37.4+173.9-20.5-26.1-76.7

YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance

An EV and energy company that, via the Optimus humanoid, targets the demand apex of Physical AI — a demand hub pulling broadly on reducers, motors, AI chips and batteries. The Optimus 1M-units/year and ~$20k targets front-load demand for Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco reducers and Nidec motors, while FSD and AI6 chips (a $16.5B Samsung foundry deal) form its real-world AI axis. But with EVs — the current revenue core — in a sales slowdown, the growth case hinges on whether Optimus and robotaxi can offset EV maturation, which is also the top risk. On the graph this node is the widest-ripple downstream demand apex, tied to five battery makers (CATL, LG Energy Solution, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, BYD) and reducer/motor suppliers.

Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09

Analyst ratings

Consensus: Buy 1 · Hold 2 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $500 · Price $407.59 (07-11) · Upside +23%

BrokerRatingTargetPublished
J.P. Morgan · Rajat GuptaHold$475Jun 5, 2026Report ↗
Wedbush Securities · Daniel IvesOutperform$600Apr 23, 2026Report ↗
Morgan Stanley · Andrew PercocoHold$425Dec 8, 2025Report ↗

Consensus is Hold. Average target near $395 but views split from Wedbush's $600 bull case to GLJ's $25 bear case; JPMorgan's upgrade to Neutral ($475) marks the shift to an autonomy/robotics narrative.

Analyses covering this node

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