NASDAQ · AI optics · EML lasers (50-60%)
Lumentum
A maker of core AI-datacenter optical-networking parts. It holds 50-60% of EMLs (the heart of 800G/1.6T transceivers) and is the only volume supplier of 200G/lane EMLs. FY2025 revenue $1.65B; Q2 FY26 $666M (+65%). NVIDIA invested $2B with multi-billion purchase commitments. Hyperscaler customers (Google, Meta, Microsoft).
LITE Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers· 2 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Lumentum is directly linked to 6 companies (3 supply, 3 revenue relationships) and reaches 43 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 13 dated sources, 3 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · FY2025 revenue $1.65B
- Customer concentration · #1 in EMLs (50-60%); NVIDIA $2B investment.
- Segments · EML lasers · 1.6T transceivers · Lasers/optics
Revenue from
- NVIDIA High confidence
Supplies EMLs/lasers to NVIDIA ($2B investment + purchase commitment). - InnoLight High confidence
Supplies EML lasers to InnoLight transceivers.Confirms EN IP-Fiber (Baudcom) Published Nov 11, 2025: Nvidia Orders Surge: InnoLight and Eoptolink Dominate 60% of 800G Supply - Eoptolink High confidence
Supplies EMLs to Eoptolink. - hyperscaler & datacom (transceivers) Medium confidence· Revenue ~$1.6B · 2025 · FY2025 revenue
Supplies 1.6T transceivers to Google/Meta/Microsoft.Confirms EN LightCounting Published Mar 1, 2026: Sales of optical transceivers reached $23.8 billion in 2025Mentions EN FPX Research Published Dec 9, 2025: Part 2: Beyond Power, The Networking Bottleneck Starting to Take Shape
Pays to
- Fabrinet High confidence
Outsources optical-module manufacturing to Fabrinet. - Tower Semiconductor Medium confidence
Sources SiPho/SiGe from Tower for optics.Confirms EN TipRanks Published Nov 10, 2025: Tower bets big on photonics (No.1 SiPho for transceivers) - MACOM Technology Medium confidence
Sources laser drivers/TIAs from MACOM for transceivers.Confirms EN Converge Digest Published Jan 1, 2026: MACOM revenue jumps 23% as AI optical demand accelerates - InP · photonic materials · fab (undisclosed) Low confidence
InP compound semiconductors and in-house fabs. - R&D & capacity expansion (undisclosed) Low confidence
New US fab and optics R&D.Confirms EN NVIDIA Published Mar 2, 2026: NVIDIA strategic partnership with Lumentum ($2B investment)
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dell Technologies | lead2 | +51.2 | -26.6 | +95.9 | +53 | +11.2 | +248.1 |
| Lenovo | lead2 | -4.6 | -20.9 | +36.2 | +18.2 | -0.6 | +175.7 |
| Hewlett Packard Enterprise | lead2 | +37.4 | +4.5 | +9.7 | +29.1 | +15.5 | +104 |
| TeraWulf | lead2 | +77.1 | -95.5 | +258.2 | +135.8 | +103 | +91.2 |
| Aurora Innovation | lead2 | · | -89.3 | +261.2 | +44.2 | -39 | +66.1 |
| Mercury Systems | lead2 | -37.5 | -18.7 | -18.3 | +14.8 | +73.8 | +47.9 |
| ASUSTeK Computer | lead2 | +35.5 | -12.9 | +72 | +41.1 | -14.1 | +46.7 |
| Wiwynn | lead2 | +24.7 | -22.3 | +206.4 | +3.5 | +64.4 | +45.1 |
| Gigabyte Technology | lead2 | +82.3 | -3.4 | +173.2 | -15.9 | -4.7 | +44.4 |
| Cloudflare | lead2 | +73 | -65.6 | +84.2 | +29.3 | +83.1 | +36.1 |
| Quanta Computer | lead2 | +22.2 | -12.8 | +254.5 | +12.7 | +8.9 | +33.4 |
| SK Telecom | lead2 | +7.9 | -12 | +15.8 | +15.5 | +37.5 | +23.4 |
| Celestica | lead2 | +37.9 | +1.3 | +159.8 | +215.2 | +220.3 | +21.7 |
| Geely Auto | lead2 | -40.8 | -22.9 | -40.3 | +98.5 | +14.5 | +18.9 |
| Wistron | lead2 | +7.9 | +9.7 | +272.7 | -1.6 | +22.7 | +14.8 |
| Alphabet (Google) | lead2 | +65.3 | -39.1 | +58.3 | +36 | +66 | +14.3 |
| Foxconn (Hon Hai) | lead2 | -5.1 | +2.8 | +7.8 | +80.1 | +26.9 | +10.9 |
| IREN | lead2 | · | -92.3 | +472 | +37.3 | +284.6 | +8.9 |
| Amazon | lead2 | +2.4 | -49.6 | +80.9 | +44.4 | +5.2 | +6.3 |
| Meta Platforms | lead2 | +23.1 | -64.2 | +194.1 | +66 | +13.1 | +1.6 |
| Tempus AI | lead2 | · | · | · | · | +74.9 | -1.4 |
| IBM | lead2 | +16.7 | +10.6 | +21.8 | +39.3 | +38.2 | -1.6 |
| Super Micro | lead2 | +38.8 | +86.8 | +246.2 | +7.2 | -4 | -3.3 |
| General Motors | lead2 | +40.8 | -42.4 | +7.9 | +49.8 | +54.2 | -3.8 |
| IonQ | lead2 | · | -79.3 | +259.1 | +237.1 | +7.4 | -4.5 |
| Hyundai Motor Company | lead2 | -16.7 | -4.7 | +16.2 | +12.3 | +158.8 | -7.8 |
| Tesla | lead2 | +49.8 | -65 | +101.7 | +62.5 | +11.4 | -9.3 |
| Toyota Motor Corporation | lead2 | +58.1 | -13.4 | +63 | +1.8 | +21.8 | -18.2 |
| Microsoft | lead2 | +52.5 | -28 | +58.2 | +12.9 | +15.6 | -20 |
| Alibaba Group | lead2 | -49 | -25.8 | -10.8 | +11.8 | +75.8 | -22.7 |
| Tencent Holdings Limited | lead2 | -28.6 | -14.2 | -28.7 | +49.8 | +52.1 | -23.2 |
| Baidu | lead2 | · | -8.2 | -23.4 | -13.5 | +74.2 | -24.5 |
| Rigetti Computing | lead2 | · | -92.9 | +35.1 | +1449.2 | +45.2 | -25.3 |
| Oracle | lead2 | +36.9 | -4.6 | +30.9 | +60 | +18.1 | -27.4 |
| Kratos Defense | lead2 | -29.3 | -46.8 | +96.6 | +30 | +187.8 | -36.5 |
| Pony.ai | lead2 | · | · | · | · | +1 | -54.6 |
| Eoptolink | lead1 | -10.1 | -27.7 | +136.6 | +197 | +368.8 | +74.9 |
| InnoLight | lead1 | -30.7 | -18.3 | +253.7 | +12 | +468.1 | +68.8 |
| NVIDIA | lead1 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +13.3 |
| Lumentum | node | +11.6 | -50.7 | +0.5 | +60.1 | +339.1 | +117.6 |
| Tower Semiconductor | benef1 | +53.7 | +8.9 | -29.4 | +68.8 | +128 | +89.7 |
| MACOM Technology | benef1 | +42.3 | -19.6 | +47.6 | +39.8 | +31.8 | +80.1 |
| Fabrinet | benef1 | +52.7 | +8.2 | +48.4 | +15.5 | +107.1 | +3.5 |
| Applied Materials | benef2 | +83.6 | -37.5 | +68 | +1.1 | +59.6 | +135 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
The thesis is an effective oligopoly in EML lasers, the 'heart' of AI-datacenter optical links. Holding world 50-60% of EMLs — the core light source of 800G/1.6T transceivers — and the only volume supplier of 200G/lane, it absorbs upstream-component demand almost exclusively as the transceiver market grows (optical transceivers $23.8B, +55% in 2025) — even world No.1 transceiver makers like InnoLight and Eoptolink depend on Lumentum and a few overseas suppliers for EMLs (China's optical-chip localization under 15%). NVIDIA's 2026 $2B investment and multi-billion purchase commitment confirmed it as a key customer, and it uses that capital to expand InP fabs and capacity. Risks are heavy linkage to the hyperscaler optical-networking capex cycle and possible spec/competitive shifts across the 800G-to-1.6T transition.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 4 · Hold 1 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $1,086 · Price $802.01 (07-10) · Upside +35%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham & Company · Ryan Koontz | Buy | $1,040 | Jun 9, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Northland Securities · Tim Savageaux | Outperform | $1,200 | Jun 3, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| JPMorgan · Samik Chatterjee | Overweight | $1,130 | May 6, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| UBS · David Vogt | Neutral | $960 | May 5, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Stifel · Ruben Roy | Buy | $1,100 | May 5, 2026 | Report ↗ |
Buy and $1,040 target kept, named 2026 'pick of the year'; direct beneficiary of the copper-to-optical shift as AI clusters densify.
Analyses covering this node
- In 1.6T optics the money flows upstream: the bottleneck is lasers, not assembly Jul 10, 2026
- Part of the demand comes from the supplier's own balance sheet: the fragility of circular financing Jun 23, 2026
- The same slots boil twice: dotcom's supply-chain overload is still running Jun 23, 2026