Restaurant franchising · Royalties & rent
McDonald's
McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain, with about 95% of its more than 45,000 outlets run by franchisees. A large share of revenue comes from sales-linked royalties and rent paid by franchisees, so it runs on the clock of consumer spending and real estate. AI adoption such as drive-thru voice ordering is an early-stage operational efficiency tool and sits apart from the semiconductor AI chain.
MCD Updated Sep 12, 2026 5 AI consumers· 4 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, McDonald's is directly linked to 4 companies (3 supply, 1 revenue relationships) and reaches 29 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 9 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-09-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · $26.9B (FY2025 consolidated revenue, +4%; systemwide sales $139B, +7%)
- Customer concentration · Tied to end consumers (dining spend). About 45,356 restaurants, roughly 95% franchised, with a real-estate model in which the company owns much of the land and buildings
- Segments · Franchised revenues · Company-operated sales · Other
Revenue from
- 가맹점 (프랜차이지) High confidence· Amount $16.5B · FY2025 · franchised revenues (mainly rent and royalties)
Collects sales-linked royalties (about 4%), rent and initial fees from franchisees. With about 95% of restaurants franchised, revenue runs on the clock of consumer spending and property rent. FY2025 franchised revenues were $16.5B.Mentions EN KeyBanc·consensus (via MarketBeat) Published Jun 29, 2026: McDonald's analyst consensus Buy, target ~$347 (KeyBanc Overweight)Confirms EN PR Newswire (McDonald's) Published Feb 11, 2026: McDonald's Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results - 말단 소비자 (외식 지출) High confidence· Amount $9.7B · FY2025 · company-operated sales (systemwide sales $139B)
Company-operated food and beverage sales ($9.7B) and systemwide consumption ($139B, +7%) track dining spend directly, making McDonald's results a proxy for consumer conditions.Confirms EN PR Newswire (McDonald's) Published Feb 11, 2026: McDonald's Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. High confidence
McDonald's licenses McCafé packaged coffee to KDP under a long-term master license covering U.S. sourcing, manufacturing, distribution, and marketing, while KDP's 10-K says this class of trade-name license may include royalties or upfront payments but does not disclose the amount paid to McDonald's.Confirms EN Keurig Dr Pepper Published Sep 26, 2019: McDonald's USA Enters Agreement with Keurig Dr Pepper for McCafé Packaged Coffee
Pays to
- Coca-Cola (exclusive fountain beverage supply) High confidence
A 70-year partnership sourcing Coca-Cola as its effectively exclusive soft drink since 1955 — McDonald's is the only customer with a dedicated 'McDonald's Division' at Coca-Cola HQ, and about 5% of its revenue comes from soft drinks. Recent menu diversification (e.g., adding Red Bull) is a variable, but Coca-Cola remains the primary beverage partner. - 식자재·인건비·임차 (직영 매장 운영) High confidence
The main costs of company-operated restaurants are food and paper, payroll and occupancy including depreciation. Under the franchise model, cost of goods sits mainly with company-operated stores. - Alphabet (Google) Medium confidence
Under a December 2023 strategic partnership with Google Cloud, McDonald's runs digital and drive-thru operations on cloud and generative AI. Its Google-backed drive-thru voice ordering (ArchIQ) is being tested at five US restaurants to cut labor costs and improve order accuracy, an operational, cost-side adoption that sits apart from the semiconductor AI demand chain.Confirms EN PR Newswire (McDonald's, Google Cloud) Published Dec 6, 2023: McDonald's and Google Cloud Announce Strategic Partnership to Apply Generative AI Across Its Restaurants - Ecolab Inc. Medium confidence
McDonald's uses Ecolab products and programs to clean and sanitize floors, kitchens, and dining areas across more than 1,000 Australian restaurants, while transaction value and share of Ecolab revenue are not disclosed.Confirms EN Ecolab Published Jan 12, 2022: McDonald's and Ecolab Maintain the Highest Standards of Safety and Hygiene for Customers and Crew
Investments
- Overseas affiliate equity & capital allocation (China/Japan affiliates + buybacks/dividends) High confidence· Amount $7.1B · 2025 · 2025 total capital returned
McDonald's capital allocation has two legs — (i) equity-method investments in affiliate markets (e.g., China, Japan) where it records its share of net results, and (ii) real-estate ownership (franchise land/buildings) anchoring a return of free cash flow via dividends and buybacks. In 2025 it returned $7.1B to shareholders ($2.0B buybacks), under a philosophy of 'invest for growth → prioritize dividend → repurchase with remaining FCF.' Real-estate ownership is the structural moat behind royalty and rent income.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | lead2 | +20.6 | +6.8 | -3.3 | -7.6 | -1.8 | -2.2 |
| Walmart Inc | lead2 | +2 | -0.5 | +12.9 | +74 | +24.5 | -3.2 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | lead1 | +17.5 | -1.2 | -4.2 | -1.1 | -10.1 | +19.2 |
| McDonald's | node | +27.8 | +0.5 | +15.1 | +0.1 | +7.9 | -14.7 |
| The Coca-Cola Company | benef1 | +11.4 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +8.9 | +15.6 | +27.7 |
| Alphabet (Google) | benef1 | +65.3 | -39.1 | +58.3 | +36 | +66 | +8.3 |
| Marvell | benef2 | +84.6 | -57.5 | +63.7 | +83.8 | -22.8 | +163.4 |
| Intel | benef2 | +6.1 | -46.6 | +94.6 | -59.6 | +84 | +159.6 |
| Wiwynn | benef2 | +24.7 | -22.3 | +206.4 | +3.5 | +64.4 | +120.2 |
| Flex Ltd. | benef2 | +1.9 | +17.1 | +41.9 | +67.2 | +57.4 | +81.2 |
| Arista Networks | benef2 | +97.9 | -15.6 | +94.1 | +87.7 | +18.5 | +47.9 |
| GE Vernova | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +99 | +44.4 |
| TeraWulf | benef2 | +77.1 | -95.5 | +258.2 | +135.8 | +103 | +43.7 |
| Alchip Technologies | benef2 | +14.3 | -8.7 | +365.1 | -18.9 | +0.8 | +36.1 |
| Eaton | benef2 | +46.7 | -7.2 | +56.2 | +39.5 | -2.8 | +30.1 |
| Quanta Computer | benef2 | +22.2 | -12.8 | +254.5 | +12.7 | +8.9 | +28.5 |
| NVIDIA | benef2 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +23.7 |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | benef2 | +62.9 | -41.7 | +34.2 | +38.4 | +10 | +21.8 |
| Schneider Electric | benef2 | +25.9 | +1.6 | +25.8 | +36.1 | +0.5 | +20.7 |
| Foxconn (Hon Hai) | benef2 | -5.1 | +2.8 | +7.8 | +80.1 | +26.9 | +19.6 |
| Monster Beverage Corporation | benef2 | +3.8 | +5.7 | +13.5 | -8.8 | +45.9 | +14.3 |
| Ecolab Inc. | benef2 | +9.4 | -37.1 | +37.9 | +19.3 | +13.2 | +7 |
| NextEra Energy | benef2 | +23.4 | -8.5 | -25.3 | +21.5 | +15.5 | +6.2 |
| Duke Energy Corporation | benef2 | +19.1 | +2 | -1.6 | +15.6 | +12.7 | +5.3 |
| Xcel Energy | benef2 | +4.4 | +6.4 | -8.7 | +12.3 | +13.9 | +4.1 |
| Broadcom | benef2 | +56.5 | -13.3 | +104.2 | +110.5 | +50.6 | +3.8 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | benef2 | +29 | +3.3 | +15.5 | +27.1 | +10.9 | +0.7 |
| Comcast Corporation | benef2 | -2.2 | -28.7 | +29.1 | -11.8 | -17.3 | -1.9 |
| Adobe Inc. | benef2 | +13.4 | -40.7 | +77.3 | -25.5 | -21.3 | -23.9 |
YTD as of 2026-09-04 · source: Yahoo Finance
McDonald's operates across S&P 500, Restaurant franchise, Consumer-spending proxy. It is -14.7% in 2026. The supply side (avg +18%) leads the stock (-14.7%), with spending rippling down to suppliers first. Among connected nodes the furthest ahead is The Coca-Cola Company (+27.7%) and the furthest behind is Alphabet (Google) (+8.3%). If chain logic explains the gap, the laggard is the next propagation candidate; if not, the link itself deserves a second look. AI adoption such as drive-thru voice ordering is an early-stage operational efficiency tool and sits apart from the semiconductor AI chain.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-09-04Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 1 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $328 · Price $255.69 (09-04) · Upside +28%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc Capital Markets · Christopher Carril | Overweight | $315 | Jun 29, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| RBC Capital Markets · Logan Reich | Sector Perform | $305 | Jun 23, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| UBS · Dennis Geiger | Buy | $365 | May 18, 2026 | Report ↗ |
The Street is split on the US traffic recovery — UBS and KeyBanc at buy, RBC and Bernstein at hold — with targets spanning $300-365.