S&P 500 · Restaurant franchise · Consumer-spending proxy
McDonald's
McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain, with about 95% of its more than 45,000 outlets run by franchisees. A large share of revenue comes from sales-linked royalties and rent paid by franchisees, so it runs on the clock of consumer spending and real estate. AI adoption such as drive-thru voice ordering is an early-stage operational efficiency tool and sits apart from the semiconductor AI chain.
MCD Updated Jul 12, 2026 5 AI consumers· 1 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, McDonald's is directly linked to 2 companies (2 supply, 0 revenue relationships) and reaches 18 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 6 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · $26.9B (FY2025 consolidated revenue, +4%; systemwide sales $139B, +7%)
- Customer concentration · Tied to end consumers (dining spend). About 45,356 restaurants, roughly 95% franchised, with a real-estate model in which the company owns much of the land and buildings
- Segments · Franchised revenues · Company-operated sales · Other
Revenue from
- 가맹점 (프랜차이지) High confidence· Amount $16.5B · FY2025 · franchised revenues (mainly rent and royalties)
Collects sales-linked royalties (about 4%), rent and initial fees from franchisees. With about 95% of restaurants franchised, revenue runs on the clock of consumer spending and property rent. FY2025 franchised revenues were $16.5B.Mentions EN KeyBanc·consensus (via MarketBeat) Published Jun 29, 2026: McDonald's analyst consensus Buy, target ~$347 (KeyBanc Overweight)Confirms EN PR Newswire (McDonald's) Published Feb 11, 2026: McDonald's Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results - 말단 소비자 (외식 지출) High confidence· Amount $9.7B · FY2025 · company-operated sales (systemwide sales $139B)
Company-operated food and beverage sales ($9.7B) and systemwide consumption ($139B, +7%) track dining spend directly, making McDonald's results a proxy for consumer conditions.Confirms EN PR Newswire (McDonald's) Published Feb 11, 2026: McDonald's Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
Pays to
- Coca-Cola (exclusive fountain beverage supply) High confidence
A 70-year partnership sourcing Coca-Cola as its effectively exclusive soft drink since 1955 — McDonald's is the only customer with a dedicated 'McDonald's Division' at Coca-Cola HQ, and about 5% of its revenue comes from soft drinks. Recent menu diversification (e.g., adding Red Bull) is a variable, but Coca-Cola remains the primary beverage partner. - 식자재·인건비·임차 (직영 매장 운영) High confidence
The main costs of company-operated restaurants are food and paper, payroll and occupancy including depreciation. Under the franchise model, cost of goods sits mainly with company-operated stores. - Alphabet (Google) Medium confidence
Under a December 2023 strategic partnership with Google Cloud, McDonald's runs digital and drive-thru operations on cloud and generative AI. Its Google-backed drive-thru voice ordering (ArchIQ) is being tested at five US restaurants to cut labor costs and improve order accuracy, an operational, cost-side adoption that sits apart from the semiconductor AI demand chain.Confirms EN PR Newswire (McDonald's, Google Cloud) Published Dec 6, 2023: McDonald's and Google Cloud Announce Strategic Partnership to Apply Generative AI Across Its Restaurants
Investments
- Overseas affiliate equity & capital allocation (China/Japan affiliates + buybacks/dividends) High confidence· Amount $7.1B · 2025 · 2025 total capital returned
McDonald's capital allocation has two legs — (i) equity-method investments in affiliate markets (e.g., China, Japan) where it records its share of net results, and (ii) real-estate ownership (franchise land/buildings) anchoring a return of free cash flow via dividends and buybacks. In 2025 it returned $7.1B to shareholders ($2.0B buybacks), under a philosophy of 'invest for growth → prioritize dividend → repurchase with remaining FCF.' Real-estate ownership is the structural moat behind royalty and rent income.
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | node | +27.8 | +0.5 | +15.1 | +0.1 | +7.9 | -9 |
| The Coca-Cola Company | benef1 | +11.4 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +8.9 | +15.6 | +21 |
| Alphabet (Google) | benef1 | +65.3 | -39.1 | +58.3 | +36 | +66 | +14.3 |
| Intel | benef2 | +6.1 | -46.6 | +94.6 | -59.6 | +84 | +197.7 |
| Marvell | benef2 | +84.6 | -57.5 | +63.7 | +83.8 | -22.8 | +177.8 |
| TeraWulf | benef2 | +77.1 | -95.5 | +258.2 | +135.8 | +103 | +91.2 |
| GE Vernova | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +99 | +67.3 |
| Wiwynn | benef2 | +24.7 | -22.3 | +206.4 | +3.5 | +64.4 | +45.1 |
| Arista Networks | benef2 | +97.9 | -15.6 | +94.1 | +87.7 | +18.5 | +42.7 |
| Alchip Technologies | benef2 | +14.3 | -8.7 | +365.1 | -18.9 | +0.8 | +34.7 |
| Quanta Computer | benef2 | +22.2 | -12.8 | +254.5 | +12.7 | +8.9 | +33.4 |
| Eaton | benef2 | +46.7 | -7.2 | +56.2 | +39.5 | -2.8 | +28.6 |
| Broadcom | benef2 | +56.5 | -13.3 | +104.2 | +110.5 | +50.6 | +16 |
| NVIDIA | benef2 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +13.3 |
| Schneider Electric | benef2 | +25.9 | +1.6 | +25.8 | +36.1 | +0.5 | +13 |
| NextEra Energy | benef2 | +23.4 | -8.5 | -25.3 | +21.5 | +15.5 | +11.1 |
| Foxconn (Hon Hai) | benef2 | -5.1 | +2.8 | +7.8 | +80.1 | +26.9 | +10.9 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | benef2 | +29 | +3.3 | +15.5 | +27.1 | +10.9 | -1.8 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
A franchise-and-real-estate model that runs about 95% of its 45,000-plus restaurants through franchisees, so a large share of revenue comes from sales-linked royalties (about 4%) and rent — results run on the clock of consumer spending and property rent. FY2025 consolidated revenue of $26.9B (+4%) and systemwide sales of $139B (+7%) make it a proxy for dining spend, sensitive to the economy and prices. AI adoption such as Google Cloud-based drive-thru voice ordering (ArchIQ) is an early, cost-side experiment aimed at cutting labor and improving order accuracy, and sits apart from the semiconductor AI demand chain. The watch points are the resilience of franchise royalties in a spending slowdown and cost pressure (food, payroll, occupancy) at company-operated stores.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 1 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $328 · Price $274.6 (07-10) · Upside +19%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc Capital Markets · Christopher Carril | Overweight | $315 | Jun 29, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| RBC Capital Markets · Logan Reich | Sector Perform | $305 | Jun 23, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| UBS · Dennis Geiger | Buy | $365 | May 18, 2026 | Report ↗ |
The Street is split on the US traffic recovery — UBS and KeyBanc at buy, RBC and Bernstein at hold — with targets spanning $300-365.