Warehouse membership retailer, an AI-cycle-uncorrelated defensive consumer control
Costco Wholesale
Costco is a warehouse membership retailer and, on this map, an AI-cycle-uncorrelated control that runs on consumer defensiveness and member loyalty. Its profit core is annual membership fees, not merchandise margin, and recurring revenue from over 80 million paid members at roughly 92% US and Canada renewal underpins results. Its AI adoption is limited and, where present, sits on the cost side (logistics and inventory efficiency), so it moves on a different clock from value-chain re-ratings.
COST Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers· 2 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Costco Wholesale is directly linked to 6 companies (6 supply, 0 revenue relationships) and reaches 37 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 9 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · Membership retail. Membership fee income of about $1.37bn per quarter (roughly $5.3-5.5bn/year) is the profit core. Q3 FY26 net sales $69.15bn, total revenue $70.53bn
- Customer concentration · About 82.9 million paid members (41.2 million Executive). US annual fee raised from $60 to $65 in September 2024, Korea fees raised in May 2025. High renewal sustained by consumer defensiveness
- Segments · Net sales (merchandise) · Membership fees
Revenue from
- 개인·비즈니스 유료회원 (멤버십 수수료) High confidence· Market share 92.2% · FY2026 3분기 · US and Canada membership renewal rate
Costco's profit core is annual membership fees, not merchandise margin: about $1.37bn per quarter at a 92.2% US and Canada renewal rate, a defensive recurring revenue. It raised the US fee from $60 to $65 in September 2024. - 소비자 (창고형 상품 판매) High confidence· Amount 69.15 USD10억 · FY2026 3분기 · net sales
Net sales come from merchandise in warehouses, kept at thin margins to draw members, across United States, Canada and Other International segments. Q3 FY26 net sales were $69.15bn.Confirms EN Longyield Published May 29, 2026: Costco: The $70B Quarter, 92.2% Renewal Rate, and Why the Membership Model Is Unbreakable
Pays to
- 상품 공급업체 바스켓 (커클랜드 PB 포함, 비공개) High confidence
The largest cost is merchandise purchasing: food, non-food and the Kirkland private label bought in bulk from many suppliers to lower cost. Individual suppliers and amounts are not disclosed.Mentions EN Longyield Published May 29, 2026: Costco: The $70B Quarter, 92.2% Renewal Rate, and Why the Membership Model Is Unbreakable - CJ CheilJedang High confidence
Bibigo mandu is a nationwide Costco staple (Pork & Veg 48oz, Chicken & Veg 36-ct), and Bibigo leads the US B2C dumpling market at 41%.Confirms EN The Asia Business Daily Published May 29, 2025: Bibigo leads US dumpling market with 41% share, on Walmart shelves - Orion High confidence
Choco Pie is carried as a Costco warehouse SKU (48-count box, item #1360023) in the US and Korea. - 물류·창고 운영·인건비 (비공개) Medium confidence
Warehouse operations, logistics and labor are the main operating costs. Any AI adoption sits on this cost side (inventory and logistics efficiency) and is unrelated to value-chain re-ratings; details are per disclosed financials.Mentions EN Longyield Published May 29, 2026: Costco: The $70B Quarter, 92.2% Renewal Rate, and Why the Membership Model Is Unbreakable - The Coca-Cola Company Medium confidence
Major warehouse channel buying and selling Coca-Cola branded beverages; Coca-Cola publicly called Costco 'an important customer' (2009), and in 2025 Costco reverted its food-court fountain to Coca-Cola across 14 countries.Confirms EN Fox Business Published Jul 19, 2025: Bye, Pepsi!: Costco locations begin to make the switch to Coca-Cola at food courts - PepsiCo Medium confidence
Major channel for PepsiCo brands (Pepsi, Frito-Lay); PepsiCo exclusively supplied Costco food-court fountain beverages from 2013 to 2025 before being switched to Coca-Cola.Confirms EN Fox Business Published Jul 19, 2025: Bye, Pepsi!: Costco locations begin to make the switch to Coca-Cola at food courts - Microsoft Medium confidence
Costco's core IT is built on Microsoft Azure (hybrid cloud), with Costco Travel running on Dynamics 365.Confirms EN Constellation Research Published Dec 15, 2025: Costco is approaching AI in a very Costco way - Alphabet (Google) Medium confidence
Runs its AI and analytics platform (GDX) on Google Cloud's Vertex AI and data cloud.Confirms EN Constellation Research Published Dec 15, 2025: Costco is approaching AI in a very Costco way
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale | node | +51.8 | -19 | +49 | +39.6 | -5.4 | +6.6 |
| The Coca-Cola Company | benef1 | +11.4 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +8.9 | +15.6 | +21 |
| Orion | benef1 | -18.4 | +29 | -25.5 | +10.6 | +18.7 | +19.8 |
| Alphabet (Google) | benef1 | +65.3 | -39.1 | +58.3 | +36 | +66 | +14.3 |
| PepsiCo | benef1 | +20.6 | +6.8 | -3.3 | -7.6 | -1.8 | -2.4 |
| CJ CheilJedang | benef1 | -17.7 | +1.1 | -14.5 | -15.7 | -8.9 | -9.3 |
| Microsoft | benef1 | +52.5 | -28 | +58.2 | +12.9 | +15.6 | -20 |
| Western Digital | benef2 | +17.7 | -51.6 | +66 | +13.9 | +283.7 | +238.4 |
| Seagate Technology | benef2 | +87.5 | -51.4 | +69.1 | +4.1 | +225.3 | +231.4 |
| Intel | benef2 | +6.1 | -46.6 | +94.6 | -59.6 | +84 | +197.7 |
| Marvell | benef2 | +84.6 | -57.5 | +63.7 | +83.8 | -22.8 | +177.8 |
| AMD | benef2 | +56.9 | -55 | +127.6 | -18.1 | +77.3 | +160.5 |
| Astera Labs | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +25.6 | +148.2 |
| Ciena | benef2 | +45.6 | -33.8 | -11.7 | +88.4 | +175.8 | +97 |
| Vertiv | benef2 | +33.8 | -45.3 | +251.8 | +136.8 | +42.8 | +96.9 |
| TeraWulf | benef2 | +77.1 | -95.5 | +258.2 | +135.8 | +103 | +91.2 |
| Credo Technology | benef2 | · | · | +46.3 | +245.2 | +114.1 | +79.2 |
| GE Vernova | benef2 | · | · | · | · | +99 | +67.3 |
| Caterpillar | benef2 | +16 | +18.6 | +25.9 | +24.7 | +60.3 | +67 |
| Wiwynn | benef2 | +24.7 | -22.3 | +206.4 | +3.5 | +64.4 | +45.1 |
| Arista Networks | benef2 | +97.9 | -15.6 | +94.1 | +87.7 | +18.5 | +42.7 |
| Equinix | benef2 | +20.3 | -21.1 | +25.4 | +19.5 | -16.9 | +38.6 |
| Alchip Technologies | benef2 | +14.3 | -8.7 | +365.1 | -18.9 | +0.8 | +34.7 |
| Quanta Computer | benef2 | +22.2 | -12.8 | +254.5 | +12.7 | +8.9 | +33.4 |
| Cummins | benef2 | -1.7 | +14.1 | +1.7 | +48.9 | +49.4 | +33.3 |
| Eaton | benef2 | +46.7 | -7.2 | +56.2 | +39.5 | -2.8 | +28.6 |
| NVIDIA | benef2 | +125.5 | -50.3 | +239 | +171.2 | +38.9 | +13.3 |
| Schneider Electric | benef2 | +25.9 | +1.6 | +25.8 | +36.1 | +0.5 | +13 |
| NextEra Energy | benef2 | +23.4 | -8.5 | -25.3 | +21.5 | +15.5 | +11.1 |
| Foxconn (Hon Hai) | benef2 | -5.1 | +2.8 | +7.8 | +80.1 | +26.9 | +10.9 |
| IREN | benef2 | · | -92.3 | +472 | +37.3 | +284.6 | +8.9 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | benef2 | +29 | +3.3 | +15.5 | +27.1 | +10.9 | -1.8 |
| Super Micro | benef2 | +38.8 | +86.8 | +246.2 | +7.2 | -4 | -3.3 |
| IonQ | benef2 | · | -79.3 | +259.1 | +237.1 | +7.4 | -4.5 |
| Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. | benef2 | · | · | +45.6 | +39.7 | -0.2 | -9 |
| Constellation Energy | benef2 | · | · | +37.2 | +92.7 | +58.8 | -28.6 |
| LigaChem Biosciences | benef2 | -26.2 | -18.1 | +37.1 | +151 | +60.5 | -40.7 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
Costco's thesis is 'a defensive consumer name that earns on membership, not merchandise.' Its profit core is annual fees, not thin merchandise margin, with recurring revenue from about 82.9 million paid members at 92.2% US and Canada renewal underpinning results — and pricing power, as the 2024 US fee hike from $60 to $65 shows. Merchandise is sold near cost to draw members (Q3 net sales $69.15B), while the Kirkland private label captures both margin and loyalty. In the graph this node is a control orthogonal to the AI chain — a retail channel buying and selling Coca-Cola, Pepsi, CJ and Orion, and a cost-side user of Microsoft and Google cloud. The keys are sustained renewal and member growth; its risk to a consumer slowdown is, if anything, lower — it is defensive by design.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 3 · Hold 0 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $1,215 · Price $916.25 (07-10) · Upside +33%