Power generation (nuclear/gas)

Vistra

One of the largest US competitive power generators (~50GW). It signed long-term nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta for datacenter power, and is expanding Comanche Peak nuclear (2.4GW) and gas (Cogentrix 5.5GW acquisition). 2025 EBITDA $5.5-6.1B. The generation pillar of the power bottleneck.

VST Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers

Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Vistra is directly linked to 4 companies (2 supply, 2 revenue relationships) and reaches 5 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 5 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).

Annual return · 2026-07-10'21+19.6%'22+5.1%'23+70.7%'24+261.5%'25+17.7%YTD-1.3%
Money inMeta PlatformsWholesale power market · enterprises (power generation)Amazon
Vistra2025 EBITDA $5.5-6.1B, ~50GW
Money outCamecoWilliams CompaniesTransmission & distribution · operation · maintenance (undisclosed)Fuel · power plants · capacity expansion (undisclosed)

Financials & Segments

  • Total revenue · 2025 EBITDA $5.5-6.1B, ~50GW
  • Customer concentration · Nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta.
  • Segments · Nuclear · Gas · Datacenter PPAs

Revenue from

  • Meta Platforms High confidence
    Long-term nuclear PPA supplying Meta datacenter power — another axis of premium nuclear demand.
    Confirms EN SEC EDGAR Published Jan 1, 2026: Vistra results/guidance (8-K)
    Confirms EN DCD Published Sep 1, 2025: Vistra nuclear PPAs with AWS/Meta; datacenter power talks
  • Wholesale power market · enterprises (power generation) High confidence
    ERCOT/PJM wholesale and corporate PPAs (~50GW).
    Confirms EN SEC EDGAR Published Jan 1, 2026: Vistra results/guidance (8-K)
  • Amazon High confidence
    Long-term nuclear PPA supplying Amazon datacenter power — a flagship deal as hyperscalers seek 24/7 carbon-free power.
    Confirms EN SEC EDGAR Published Jan 1, 2026: Vistra results/guidance (8-K)
    Confirms EN DCD Published Sep 1, 2025: Vistra nuclear PPAs with AWS/Meta; datacenter power talks

Pays to

  • Cameco Medium confidence
    Sources nuclear fuel (uranium) from Cameco — upstream fuel dependence for nuclear generation.
    Confirms EN SEC EDGAR Published Feb 23, 2026: Cameco FY2025 results (6-K)
  • Williams Companies Medium confidence
    Sources gas-generation fuel via Williams pipelines — a fuel axis tied to midstream transport.
    Confirms EN Nasdaq Published Jan 1, 2025: Williams to invest in power projects for datacenters
  • Transmission & distribution · operation · maintenance (undisclosed) Low confidence
    Plant operations, maintenance and grid interconnection.
    Confirms EN Utility Dive Published Jan 27, 2026: Vistra signs nuclear PPAs with Meta (2.6GW)
    Confirms EN SEC EDGAR Published Jan 1, 2026: Vistra results/guidance (8-K)
  • Fuel · power plants · capacity expansion (undisclosed) Low confidence
    Nuclear/gas fuel and plant acquisitions/expansion (Cogentrix) — the capital-intensive cost of capacity growth (undisclosed).
    Confirms EN SEC EDGAR Published Jan 1, 2026: Vistra results/guidance (8-K)

Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)

Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.

CompanyChain'21'22'23'24'25YTD
Procter & Gamblelead2+20.5-5-0.9+17.3-12.3+4.1
Meta Platformslead1+23.1-64.2+194.1+66+13.1+1.6
Vistranode+19.6+5.1+70.7+261.5+17.7-1.3
Williams Companiesbenef1+38.4+32.8+11.9+62.3+14.9+26.6
Camecobenef1+63.2+4.3+90.5+19.5+78.4+4.9

YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance

Vistra's thesis is its position as one of the largest US competitive generators, holding nuclear and gas capacity to sell datacenter power. With a ~50GW portfolio selling into ERCOT/PJM wholesale, it pre-committed datacenter power via long-term nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta — with the grid unable to keep pace with AI demand, 24/7 carbon-free nuclear power is premium hyperscaler demand. The Comanche Peak nuclear expansion (2.4GW) and the Cogentrix acquisition (5.5GW gas) grow capacity, and 2025 EBITDA of $5.5-6.1B is the earnings base. On the cost side it is tied to Cameco (uranium) and Williams (gas), exposed to fuel prices and transport. Re-rating triggers are additional datacenter PPA signings, nuclear/gas capacity coming online, and wholesale power prices.

Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09

Analyst ratings

Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 0 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $220 · Price $158.58 (07-11) · Upside +39%

BrokerRatingTargetPublished
Morgan Stanley · David ArcaroOverweight$210Jun 24, 2026Report
Seaport Research PartnersBuy$230Jun 15, 2026Report

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