Power generation (nuclear/gas)
Vistra
One of the largest US competitive power generators (~50GW). It signed long-term nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta for datacenter power, and is expanding Comanche Peak nuclear (2.4GW) and gas (Cogentrix 5.5GW acquisition). 2025 EBITDA $5.5-6.1B. The generation pillar of the power bottleneck.
VST Updated Jul 12, 2026 4 AI consumers
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Vistra is directly linked to 4 companies (2 supply, 2 revenue relationships) and reaches 5 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 5 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · 2025 EBITDA $5.5-6.1B, ~50GW
- Customer concentration · Nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta.
- Segments · Nuclear · Gas · Datacenter PPAs
Revenue from
- Meta Platforms High confidence
Long-term nuclear PPA supplying Meta datacenter power — another axis of premium nuclear demand. - Wholesale power market · enterprises (power generation) High confidence
ERCOT/PJM wholesale and corporate PPAs (~50GW). - Amazon High confidence
Long-term nuclear PPA supplying Amazon datacenter power — a flagship deal as hyperscalers seek 24/7 carbon-free power.
Pays to
- Cameco Medium confidence
Sources nuclear fuel (uranium) from Cameco — upstream fuel dependence for nuclear generation. - Williams Companies Medium confidence
Sources gas-generation fuel via Williams pipelines — a fuel axis tied to midstream transport. - Transmission & distribution · operation · maintenance (undisclosed) Low confidence
Plant operations, maintenance and grid interconnection. - Fuel · power plants · capacity expansion (undisclosed) Low confidence
Nuclear/gas fuel and plant acquisitions/expansion (Cogentrix) — the capital-intensive cost of capacity growth (undisclosed).
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Procter & Gamble | lead2 | +20.5 | -5 | -0.9 | +17.3 | -12.3 | +4.1 |
| Meta Platforms | lead1 | +23.1 | -64.2 | +194.1 | +66 | +13.1 | +1.6 |
| Vistra | node | +19.6 | +5.1 | +70.7 | +261.5 | +17.7 | -1.3 |
| Williams Companies | benef1 | +38.4 | +32.8 | +11.9 | +62.3 | +14.9 | +26.6 |
| Cameco | benef1 | +63.2 | +4.3 | +90.5 | +19.5 | +78.4 | +4.9 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
Vistra's thesis is its position as one of the largest US competitive generators, holding nuclear and gas capacity to sell datacenter power. With a ~50GW portfolio selling into ERCOT/PJM wholesale, it pre-committed datacenter power via long-term nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta — with the grid unable to keep pace with AI demand, 24/7 carbon-free nuclear power is premium hyperscaler demand. The Comanche Peak nuclear expansion (2.4GW) and the Cogentrix acquisition (5.5GW gas) grow capacity, and 2025 EBITDA of $5.5-6.1B is the earnings base. On the cost side it is tied to Cameco (uranium) and Williams (gas), exposed to fuel prices and transport. Re-rating triggers are additional datacenter PPA signings, nuclear/gas capacity coming online, and wholesale power prices.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 2 · Hold 0 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $220 · Price $158.58 (07-11) · Upside +39%