Alpha launcher and Blue Ghost lunar lander
Firefly Aerospace
Firefly Aerospace achieved the first fully successful commercial Moon landing with Blue Ghost Mission 1 in March 2025, completing all 17 objectives. It listed on Nasdaq in August 2025 ($45 IPO, ~$868M raised), posting FY2025 revenue of $159.9 million (up 163%) with a ~$1.4 billion backlog. Three NASA CLPS task orders remain, multi-launch agreements cover up to 25 Alpha missions for Lockheed Martin and up to 23 for L3Harris, and the Eclipse medium launcher is co-developed with a $50 million Northrop Grumman equity investment. Its top five customers exceed 86% of revenue.
FLY Updated Jul 12, 2026 5 AI consumers· 1 recurring
Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Firefly Aerospace is directly linked to 4 companies (1 supply, 2 revenue, 1 investment relationships) and reaches 8 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 6 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).
Financials & Segments
- Total revenue · FY2025 revenue $159.9M (+163%)
- Customer concentration · Top-5 customers 86%+; backlog ~$1.4B (top-5 = 81%)
- Segments · Launch (Alpha small launcher) · Spacecraft Solutions (Blue Ghost, Elytra) · Eclipse (medium launcher co-developed with Northrop)
Revenue from
- NASA (CLPS·Blue Ghost) High confidence· contract award $180M · 2028 mission (Blue Ghost Mission 3) · NASA CLPS 4th task-order contract value (deliver/operate six NASA instruments to the Gruithuisen Domes)
NASA CLPS is Firefly's largest revenue source. After the successful Blue Ghost Mission 1 (2025-03, delivered 10 NASA payloads to Mare Crisium), Firefly holds three additional CLPS task orders. Most recent confirmed award is Blue Ghost Mission 3 (Gruithuisen Domes, 2028) at ~$179.6M, Firefly's fourth CLPS task order. Relationship confirmed current in the FY2025 10-K.Confirms EN U.S. SEC EDGAR Published Mar 20, 2026: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Form 10-K (FY ended Dec 31, 2025)Mentions KO NewsSpace (Korea) Published Jul 13, 2025: After Blue Ghost's Moon landing, Firefly Aerospace files for Nasdaq IPO; revenue up 6x, $1.1B backlogConfirms EN GlobeNewswire (Firefly Aerospace press release) Published Dec 18, 2024: Firefly Awarded $179 Million NASA Contract for Moon Delivery to Gruithuisen Domes - Lockheed Martin High confidence
Multi-launch agreement signed 2024-06-05 for up to 25 Alpha missions over five years (15 reservations + 10 options) from Firefly's west/east coast sites. FY2025 10-K reaffirms the up-to-25-mission relationship as current. Total contract value undisclosed.Confirms EN U.S. SEC EDGAR Published Mar 20, 2026: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Form 10-K (FY ended Dec 31, 2025)Confirms EN Lockheed Martin Published Jun 5, 2024: Lockheed Martin Purchases Up to 25 Rocket Launches from Firefly Aerospace - L3Harris Medium confidence
Multi-launch customer for the Alpha rocket: up to 20 launches (two to four per year from 2027 to 2031) added on top of an existing three-mission agreement. Confirmed current in the FY2025 10-K. Total value undisclosed.Confirms EN U.S. SEC EDGAR Published Mar 20, 2026: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Form 10-K (FY ended Dec 31, 2025)
Pays to
- SpaceX High confidence
The Blue Ghost lunar lander launches on SpaceX Falcon 9 rather than Firefly's own Alpha: Mission 1 lifted off from KSC LC-39A on January 15, 2025, and Mission 2 (late 2026) will also fly on Falcon 9 with the Elytra transfer vehicle. Launch contract values undisclosed.Confirms EN Firefly Aerospace Published Jan 15, 2025: Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost Mission 1 Successfully Launches and Begins 45-Day Transit to the Moon - US Space Force launch sites (Vandenberg etc.) Medium confidence
Firefly conducts ongoing Alpha launch operations from Vandenberg Space Force Base (SLC-2) in California, a cost relationship for use of U.S. Space Force range/launch infrastructure. Additional pads under construction at Virginia's Wallops Island (Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport), Esrange (Sweden) and Cape Canaveral (Florida). Lease/range cost amounts undisclosed. Confirmed in the FY2025 10-K.Confirms EN U.S. SEC EDGAR Published Mar 20, 2026: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Form 10-K (FY ended Dec 31, 2025)
Investors
- Northrop Grumman High confidence· equity investment $50M · 2023~ · Equity investment supporting Eclipse co-development
Northrop Grumman is the exclusive co-development partner and equity investor behind the Eclipse medium launch vehicle, supporting development with a $50 million equity investment; Eclipse combines Firefly's Alpha technology with Northrop's Antares heritage.Confirms EN U.S. SEC EDGAR Published Mar 20, 2026: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Form 10-K (FY ended Dec 31, 2025)
Value-chain ripple (2 tiers)
Following node-to-node links up to 2 tiers; each firm is shown once, at its nearest tier.
| Company | Chain | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | lead2 | +23.3 | +20 | -14.4 | +40.8 | +61.4 | +7.6 |
| Intuitive Machines | lead2 | · | +3.7 | -74.4 | +610.8 | -10.6 | -0.6 |
| Korea Aerospace Industries | lead2 | +15.4 | +34.6 | +7 | +5.5 | +217.9 | -14 |
| Lockheed Martin | lead1 | +3.2 | +40.5 | -4.3 | +10 | +2.5 | +9.5 |
| L3Harris | lead1 | +15 | -0.5 | +3.7 | +1.9 | +42.3 | -0.2 |
| Firefly Aerospace | node | · | · | · | · | · | +7.7 |
| SpaceX | benef1 | · | · | · | · | · | +0.7 |
| Northrop Grumman | benef1 | +29.3 | +43 | -12.8 | +1.9 | +23.6 | -4.6 |
| STMicroelectronics | benef2 | +32.4 | -26.8 | +41.7 | -49.7 | +5.3 | +176.6 |
YTD as of 2026-07-10 · source: Yahoo Finance
Firefly's thesis is 'a backlog option built on proven Moon-landing credibility.' Blue Ghost Mission 1 delivered the first fully successful commercial Moon landing (all 17 objectives), earning trust, with revenue of $159.9M (+163%) and a ~$1.4B backlog behind it — though top-five customers exceeding 86% of revenue is a concentration risk. In the graph, NASA CLPS (its largest revenue source), Lockheed Martin (up to 25 launches) and L3Harris (up to 23) pre-commit Alpha demand downstream, while upstream it ironically depends on SpaceX Falcon 9 to launch its own lunar lander, and Northrop co-develops the Eclipse medium launcher with a $50M equity stake. The keys are launch cadence (throughput and success rate) and Eclipse development; the risks are customer concentration, losses and launch failure.
Analysis generated from returns as of 2026-07-09Analyst ratings
Consensus: Buy 3 · Hold 0 · Sell 0 · Avg. target $54 · Price $24.09 (07-10) · Upside +124%
| Broker | Rating | Target | Published | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies · Sheila Kahyaoglu | Buy | $52 | Jun 25, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| KeyBanc Capital Markets · Michael Leshock | Overweight | $50 | Jun 15, 2026 | Report ↗ |
| Roth Capital · Suji Desilva | Buy | $60 | Apr 17, 2026 | Report ↗ |
Buy consensus (average target in the high-$40s) built on Blue Ghost's lunar success and NASA's expanding lunar cargo plans, capped by KeyBanc's upgrade.
Analyses covering this node
- The launch-tier paradox: even rocket companies are SpaceX customers Jul 4, 2026
- The prime tier runs on a budget clock: where the space re-rating stops Jul 4, 2026