From wreckage to re-rating
In 2023-24 the market abandoned satellite operators. Eutelsat fell three straight years from 2022 (-30.7%, -51.8%, -48.9%), Iridium three straight from 2023 (-19.1%, -28.1%, -38.5%), SES dropped -36% in 2024 and Viasat -69.6%. The fear had one name: Starlink would replace GEO broadband, handset satphones and video distribution alike.
In 2025-26 the picture inverted. Viasat +304.9% (2025) then +122.6% (2026), SES +141.5% then +16.7%, Iridium +196.7% in 2026. All five new nodes are in positive territory. What changed?
Three drivers of the re-rating
First, sovereign European demand. Europe declared Starlink dependence a security risk and paid accordingly. The EU handed the IRIS² secure-constellation concession (EUR 10.6bn total) to the SpaceRISE consortium including Eutelsat and SES; France's DGA signed a 10-year framework with Eutelsat worth up to EUR 1bn; the French state became Eutelsat's largest shareholder (~30%); Luxembourg expanded its GovSat partnership with SES. Governments arriving as anchor customers and shareholders erased survival risk.
Second, big tech entering D2D. Apple became both a wholesale customer worth 63% of Globalstar's revenue and a 20% SPE shareholder, and in April 2026 Amazon agreed to buy Globalstar for about $11.6 billion ($90 per share), creating a benchmark price for satellite spectrum and infrastructure. Iridium's +196.7% in 2026 looks partly like that price tag applied across the sector. What got re-rated was not the residual value of satphones but the option value of smartphone D2D infrastructure. Globalstar's own tape shows how early this driver started working: six straight positive years, from +241.2% in 2021 when the Apple deal surfaced to +31.2% in 2026, including gains of +45.9% and +6.7% through the 2023-24 wreckage. The one operator holding a big-tech anchor customer sailed past the Starlink fear.
Third, consolidation and completion. SES closed the $3.1 billion Intelsat acquisition in July 2025, gaining scale (~120 satellites, EUR 6.6bn+ backlog), and Viasat completed the three-satellite ViaSat-3 constellation in April 2026 on top of its Inmarsat integration. Instead of oversupplied attrition, a consolidated few-player structure emerged.
Balance sheets decided the size of each rebound. Viasat, carrying roughly $7.5 billion of debt, had leverage amplify both directions: the deepest fall of 2024 and the sharpest bounce of 2025. SES, which absorbed Intelsat without issuing new shares, compounded most solidly across the two years, while Eutelsat, which accepted dilution through a EUR 1.35bn capital raise, managed only +32.1% in 2025. Within one sovereignty theme, the market priced dilution with precision.
Down the chain: manufacturing and launch are next
Money received by operators splits next into satellite manufacturing and launch costs. Airbus builds up to 440 second-generation OneWeb satellites in Toulouse; Boeing builds SES's 13 O3b mPOWER satellites; Thales Alenia builds its GEO fleet; MDA Space builds Globalstar's 50+ C-3 satellites (~CAD 1.1bn). Launch converges on one company. Iridium NEXT's eight launches ($492M), Globalstar ($162.6M paid), SES, Eutelsat's OneWeb and Viasat's ViaSat-3 all name SpaceX as the launch cost counterparty for the five nodes added here. The company that crushed this sector with Starlink also collects its competitors' launch fees, and since its June 2026 Nasdaq listing (ticker SPCX) that fee stream books as a listed company's revenue.
The first evidence of propagation has already surfaced on the ground. Gilat, the ground-equipment maker whose SkyEdge IV platform runs SES's O3b mPOWER network, sits one layer below the operators and rose +110.4% in 2025 as defense SATCOM and in-flight connectivity acquisitions stacked up. Equipment demand lags operator investment, so a move in that layer means the re-rating has started stepping down the chain.
Verification conclusion and remaining risks
In the satcom chain, gains started from sovereign budgets and big-tech D2D demand, reached operators first, and are now moving to manufacturing (Airbus, Boeing, Thales, MDA) and launch (SpaceX). Most of that downstream has since joined the graph: Airbus and Boeing became nodes in where the prime tier runs on a budget clock, and MDA and a now-listed SpaceX (SPCX) are nodes too. The remaining name is Thales, first in line for the European-Korean prime expansion.
The risks are equally clear. Iridium's EMSS contract, 29% of revenue, expires in September 2026; Eutelsat's rebound (+7.9%) badly lags SES (+16.7%) on the same sovereignty theme under dilution and OneWeb capex. Once Amazon's Globalstar acquisition closes, the stock that handed the sector its benchmark price leaves the market, and whether that price repeats can only be confirmed by the next deal. And the whole re-rating rests on the premise that Starlink will not take everything: if that premise cracks, 2023-24 returns.