{"slug":"xinyi-solar","name":"신이태양광(신이솔라)","name_en":"Xinyi Solar","ticker":"0968.HK","updated_at":"2026-07-12T04:30:28.774+00:00","canonical":"https://valuechain.wiki/xinyi-solar","citable":"밸류체인 그래프 기준 신이태양광(신이솔라)의 직접 연결 기업은 1곳(관계 기준 공급 1·매출 1·투자 1)이고, 사슬을 2차까지 넓히면 1곳에 닿는다. 링크의 근거 출처는 5건이며 그중 1차공시가 2건이다 (valuechain.wiki, 2026-07-12 기준).","citable_en":"Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Xinyi Solar is directly linked to 1 companies (1 supply, 1 revenue, 1 investment relationships) and reaches 1 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 5 dated sources, 2 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).","kicker":"항셍 지수 · 태양광 소재 · 솔라글라스 세계 1위(점유율 30%)","kicker_en":"Hang Seng Index · Solar materials · World No.1 in solar glass (~30%)","lead":"태양광 모듈의 필수 소재인 솔라글라스에서 점유율 약 30%로 세계 1위인 저원가 규모 사업자다. FY2024 순이익 -73.8% 급감은 경쟁력 훼손이 아니라 중국발 공급과잉에 따른 유리 ASP 붕괴 탓으로, 판매량이 오히려 +9.6% 늘었다는 사실이 이 사이클이 '수요'가 아닌 '가격' 국면임을 드러낸다. 그래서 핵심은 반등 시점이며, 업계가 라인 냉수리·감산으로 캐파를 줄이는(신이도 일 5,000톤 보류) 지금 공급 규율이 회복의 방아쇠다 — 일일 용융 32,200톤의 규모와 천연가스·계열 규사 조달 기반 원가우위가 바닥 국면을 버티는 힘이다.","lead_en":"The world's No.1 in solar glass — the indispensable input for PV modules — at ~30% share, competing on low-cost scale. The 73.8% FY2024 profit collapse was not a loss of competitiveness but an ASP crash driven by China's overcapacity; that volumes actually rose 9.6% shows this is a price cycle, not a demand one. So the crux is timing the rebound: with the industry cutting capacity through cold repairs and idling (Xinyi itself has held back 5,000 t/day), supply discipline is the trigger for recovery — and its 32,200 t/day melting scale plus a cost edge from natural gas and in-group silica sourcing are what let it endure the trough.","segments":{"fy":2025,"parts":[{"desc":"매출 RMB178억(FY2025)로 전체의 85%, 회사의 심장. 판매량은 FY2024 +9.6%·FY2025 +4.2%로 계속 늘었지만 ASP 붕괴가 매출·이익을 눌렀다 — 점유율(세계 1위)을 지키며 물량을 늘려 가격 하락을 방어하는 규모 전략 국면이다. 일일 용융 캐파 32,200톤 중 21,400톤만 가동해 공급을 조절한다.","name":"태양광 유리"},{"desc":"매출 RMB30억(FY2025, +12% 전년), 누적 계통연계 6,244MW. 유리 사이클과 무관한 고정가격(FIT) 현금흐름으로 실적 변동성을 완충하는 안정 축이지만, 투자수익 불확실성에 신규 투자를 늦춰 성장 기여는 제한적이다.","name":"태양광 발전소(발전)"},{"desc":"윈난 폴리실리콘 설비는 준공했으나 공급과잉 국면에 가동을 보류하고 감액손실까지 반영했다 — 수직통합 시도가 사이클 타이밍에 발목 잡힌 사례로, 확장 계획도 접었다.","name":"폴리실리콘(비핵심)"}],"total":"RMB 208억6,120만 (FY2025 연결, 전년 -4.8%)","source":"Xinyi Solar 2024 연차보고서 + 2025 연간실적"},"segments_en":{"fy":2025,"parts":[{"desc":"Revenue RMB17.8bn (FY2025), 85% of the total and the company's heart. Volumes kept rising (+9.6% FY2024, +4.2% FY2025) but the ASP crash weighed on revenue and profit — a scale strategy that defends share (world No.1) and grows volume to cushion falling prices. Of 32,200 t/day melting capacity only 21,400 t is running, throttling supply.","name":"Solar glass"},{"desc":"Revenue RMB3.0bn (FY2025, +12% YoY), 6,244MW grid-connected. A stabilizer whose feed-in-tariff cash flows are uncorrelated with the glass cycle, cushioning earnings volatility — but growth is capped as new investment slows amid uncertain project returns.","name":"Solar farms (power generation)"},{"desc":"The Yunnan polysilicon plant was built but idled amid the glut, with an impairment taken — a vertical-integration bet caught out by cycle timing; expansion plans have been shelved.","name":"Polysilicon (non-core)"}],"total":"RMB20,861.2m (FY2025 consolidated, -4.8% YoY)","source":"Xinyi Solar Annual Report 2024 + FY2025 results"},"returns_yearly":{"2021":-24.8,"2022":-17.3,"2023":-64,"2024":-5.6,"2025":7.3,"2026":-40.9},"return_asof":"2026-07-10","value_chain":{"leading":[{"slug":"xinyi-glass","name":"신이유리(신이글라스)","name_en":"Xinyi Glass","tier":1,"returns_yearly":{"2021":14.2,"2022":-13.6,"2023":-59.7,"2024":20.8,"2025":46.2,"2026":-14.7}}],"benefiting":[{"slug":"xinyi-glass","name":"신이유리(신이글라스)","name_en":"Xinyi Glass","tier":1,"returns_yearly":{"2021":14.2,"2022":-13.6,"2023":-59.7,"2024":20.8,"2025":46.2,"2026":-14.7}}],"analysis":"신이솔라의 논지는 사실상 범용재인 솔라글라스에서 규모·원가로 버티는 세계 1위(점유율 ~30%)라는 구조다. FY2024 순이익 -73.8% 급감은 경쟁력 훼손이 아니라 중국발 공급과잉에 따른 유리 ASP 붕괴 탓으로, 판매량이 오히려 +9.6% 늘었다는 사실이 이 사이클을 '수요'가 아니라 '가격' 국면으로 규정한다. 일일 용융 32,200톤 중 21,400톤만 가동하며 물량으로 점유율을 지키고, 천연가스·계열 규사(Hepu 광산) 수직통합 원가우위가 바닥 국면을 버티는 힘이다. 발전소(FIT) 부문이 유리 사이클과 무관한 고정가격 현금흐름으로 변동성을 완충하나, 폴리실리콘 수직통합 시도는 공급과잉에 발목 잡혀 가동을 보류했다. 재평가의 방아쇠는 수요가 아니라 공급 규율 — 업계의 냉수리·감산이 캐파를 줄여 ASP가 반등하는 시점이다.","analysis_en":"Xinyi Solar's thesis is being the world No.1 (~30% share) that survives on scale and cost in solar glass, an essentially commoditized material. The 73.8% FY2024 profit plunge was not a loss of competitiveness but a glass-ASP collapse from Chinese oversupply — with volume actually up 9.6%, this cycle is defined by price, not demand. Running only 21,400 of 32,200 tons/day of melting capacity, it defends share by volume, and its cost edge from natural gas and vertically integrated silica (Hepu mine) is what carries it through the trough. The power-plant (FIT) segment cushions volatility with fixed-price cash flow uncorrelated to the glass cycle, while its polysilicon vertical-integration attempt was held back by oversupply. The re-rating trigger is not demand but supply discipline — the point at which industry cold-repairs and capacity cuts shrink supply and ASP rebounds.","analysis_asof":"2026-07-10"},"edges":[{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"태양광 모듈 제조사 (PV 유리, 익명)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2025,"share_pct":30,"revenue_rmb_mn":17831.8,"top5_customer_pct":49.2,"revenue_rmb_mn_fy2024":18820},"note":"태양광 유리는 모듈의 필수 소재지만 사실상 범용재라, 신이의 경쟁력은 제품 차별화가 아니라 규모·원가에서 나온다 — 세계 1위(점유율 ~30%)로 물량을 밀며 ASP 붕괴 국면을 버틴다. 고객은 모듈 제조사(익명, 최대 14.2%·상위5 49.2%)로 특정 고객 편중은 낮고, 매출의 77%가 중국이라 실적은 중국 태양광 설치·모듈 가동률에 직접 연동된다.","note_en":"Solar glass is an indispensable but largely commoditized module input, so Xinyi competes on scale and cost rather than differentiation — pushing volume as the world No.1 (~30% share) to ride out the ASP crash. Customers are module makers (undisclosed; largest 14.2%, top-5 49.2%), so single-customer risk is low, and with 77% of sales in China its results track Chinese PV installations and module utilization directly.","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"Morgan Stanley","publisher_en":"Morgan Stanley","kind":"research","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-07-01","url":"https://www.investing.com/equities/xinyi-solar-consensus-estimates","title":"신이태양광 애널리스트 컨센서스(모건스탠리 매수·목표가 HK$4.20)","title_en":"Xinyi Solar analyst consensus (Morgan Stanley Buy, TP HK$4.20)","excerpt":"애널리스트 컨센서스 16곳 평균 목표가 HK$3.66(매수). 모건스탠리 매수 HK$4.20, 골드만 보유 HK$3.50, JP모건 보유 HK$3.60, 씨티 보유 HK$2.40.","excerpt_en":"Consensus of 16 analysts: avg TP HK$3.66 (Buy). Morgan Stanley Buy HK$4.20; Goldman Hold HK$3.50; JPMorgan Hold HK$3.60; Citi Hold HK$2.40."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-04-30","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2026/04/20260430181229257.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2025 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2025","excerpt":"태양광 유리 매출 RMB17,831.8m(FY2025), 판매량 +4.2%, 매출총이익률 9.7%→14.1%.","excerpt_en":"Solar-glass revenue RMB17,831.8m (FY2025); volume +4.2%; segment gross margin 9.7%→14.1%."},{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"Mordor Intelligence","publisher_en":"Mordor Intelligence","kind":"analysis","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-12-31","url":"https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/solar-photovoltaic-glass-market","title":"태양광 유리 시장 (신이솔라 30%)","title_en":"Solar PV glass market (Xinyi Solar 30%)","excerpt":"Xinyi Solar has a 30% global market share in photovoltaic glass, ~29% of global capacity.","excerpt_en":"Xinyi Solar ~30% of PV glass market."},{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"네이트 뉴스","publisher_en":"Nate News","kind":"news","lang":"ko","published_at":"2025-10-02","url":"https://news.nate.com/view/20251002n09752","title":"태양광, 공급과잉 완화…투자 체크포인트는[산업별 ESG 투자 리포트]","title_en":"Solar: oversupply easing — investment checkpoints (KR ESG report)","excerpt":"태양광 모듈(유리 수요의 80%)이 감산하며 중국 태양광 유리 공급과잉·ASP 하락 지속.","excerpt_en":"Solar modules (80% of glass demand) are cutting output; China solar-glass oversupply and ASP declines persist."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"Sales of solar glass RMB18,820.0m (85.9% of revenue), down 11.9%; largest customer 14.2%, five largest 49.2%. Daily melting capacity 32,200 tonnes (23,200 in operation).","excerpt_en":"Sales of solar glass RMB18,820.0m (85.9% of revenue), down 11.9%; largest customer 14.2%, five largest 49.2%. Daily melting capacity 32,200 tonnes."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"전력망(계통)·고정가격(FIT)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2025,"capacity_mw":6244,"revenue_rmb_mn":2993.5,"revenue_rmb_mn_fy2024":3017.3},"note":"태양광 발전소는 유리 사이클과 무관한 고정가격(FIT) 현금흐름을 제공해 실적 변동성을 완충하는 안정 축 — 누적 계통연계 6,244MW, 상당수를 자회사 Xinyi Energy(80.5%)로 보유한다. 다만 투자수익 불확실성에 신규 투자를 늦춰 성장 기여는 제한적이다.","note_en":"The solar-farm business supplies feed-in-tariff cash flows uncorrelated with the glass cycle, a stabilizer against earnings volatility — 6,244MW grid-connected, much held via 80.5%-owned Xinyi Energy. But its growth contribution is capped as new investment slows amid uncertain returns.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-04-30","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2026/04/20260430181229257.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2025 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2025","excerpt":"태양광 발전 매출 RMB2,993.5m(FY2025).","excerpt_en":"Solar-farm revenue RMB2,993.5m (FY2025)."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"Solar farm business revenue RMB3,017.3m, +12.1%. Cumulated approved grid-connected capacity 6,244MW, of which 5,841MW utility-scale.","excerpt_en":"Solar farm revenue RMB3,017.3m, +12.1%. Cumulated grid-connected capacity 6,244MW (5,841MW utility-scale)."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"신이글라스 계열(Anhui Xinyi Machinery, 설비)","counterparty_slug":"xinyi-glass","confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2024,"cap_rmb_mn":288,"amount_rmb_mn":199.371},"note":"태양광 유리 생산설비를 모그룹 신이글라스 계열(Anhui Xinyi Machinery)에서 조달하는 계열 거래(CCT, FY2024 RMB1억9,937만) — 라인 증설·냉수리 장비를 계열 내에서 확보해 캐파 조절 유연성을 높이지만, 관계자 거래 의존이라는 거버넌스 측면도 있다.","note_en":"Sources glass production equipment from parent group's Anhui Xinyi Machinery, an in-group deal (CCT, RMB199.4m FY2024) — securing line-expansion and cold-repair equipment within the group adds capacity-adjustment flexibility, but also carries related-party-dependence governance considerations.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"2024 Production Equipment Purchase Agreement with Anhui Xinyi Machinery (a subsidiary of substantial shareholder Xinyi Glass): actual RMB199,371,000 (cap RMB288,000,000).","excerpt_en":"2024 Production Equipment Purchase Agreement with Anhui Xinyi Machinery (unit of substantial shareholder Xinyi Glass): actual RMB199,371,000 (cap RMB288,000,000)."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"천연가스 공급사(익명)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2024,"input":"natural_gas"},"note":"천연가스가 유리 용융로의 주 에너지원이라 가스가격이 곧 원가 경쟁력을 좌우한다 — ASP가 붕괴한 다운사이클에서 2024년 소다회·규사·천연가스 조달단가 하락이 마진 방어의 결정적 완충이었다(공급사 익명). 에너지 효율·연료비가 저원가 지위의 핵심 변수다.","note_en":"Natural gas is the principal furnace energy source, so gas prices directly set cost competitiveness — in a down-cycle of collapsed ASPs, 2024's lower procurement costs for soda ash, silica sand and natural gas were the decisive margin cushion (suppliers undisclosed). Energy efficiency and fuel cost are the key levers of its low-cost position.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"Energy — Natural gas has been used as the principal energy source for the Group's glass melting furnaces. Reduction in procurement costs for soda ash, silica sand and natural gas.","excerpt_en":"Natural gas is the principal energy source for the glass melting furnaces; procurement costs for soda ash, silica sand and natural gas fell."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"신이글라스(모그룹, 규사 판매)","counterparty_slug":"xinyi-glass","confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2024,"cap_rmb_mn":96.4,"amount_rmb_mn":51.668},"note":"모그룹 신이글라스에 자체 규사광산(Hepu Mining) 규사를 판매하는 계열 내 거래(CCT, FY2024 RMB5,167만) — 유리 사업의 원가 축인 규사 자원을 수직통합해 남는 물량을 계열에 되파는 구조로, 소재 자급이 원가우위의 또 다른 축임을 보여준다.","note_en":"Sells silica sand from its own mine (Hepu Mining) to parent Xinyi Glass, an in-group transaction (CCT, RMB51.67m FY2024) — monetizing surplus from a vertically integrated silica resource that is itself a cost pillar of the glass business, underscoring how raw-material self-supply anchors its cost edge.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"2024 Silica Sand Sales Agreement — Hepu Mining sells silica sand to Xinyi Glass (Hong Kong); actual RMB51,668,000 (cap RMB96,400,000).","excerpt_en":"2024 Silica Sand Sales Agreement — Hepu Mining sells silica sand to Xinyi Glass (Hong Kong); actual RMB51,668,000 (cap RMB96,400,000)."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"소다회·규사 공급사(익명)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"fy":2024,"top_supplier_pct":8.7,"top5_supplier_pct":28.9},"note":"소다회·저철분 규사가 유리 원가의 핵심 원재료로, 이들 가격이 ASP와 함께 마진을 좌우한다 — 저철분 규사는 모그룹 Xinyi Glass에서도 조달(2024 상한 5,740만, 실거래 nil)한다. 공급 집중은 낮은 편(최대 8.7%·상위5 28.9%, 익명)이라 조달 협상력은 유지된다.","note_en":"Soda ash and low-iron silica sand are the core raw materials whose prices, alongside ASP, drive margins — low-iron silica is also sourced from parent Xinyi Glass (2024 cap RMB57.4m, actual nil). Supplier concentration is modest (largest 8.7%, top-5 28.9%, undisclosed), preserving procurement leverage.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"Five largest suppliers 28.9% (largest 8.7%). 2024 Silica Sand Purchase Agreement — Group buys low-iron silica sand from Xinyi Glass (Hong Kong), cap RMB57,400,000, actual nil.","excerpt_en":"Five largest suppliers 28.9% (largest 8.7%). Low-iron silica sand purchase from Xinyi Glass (Hong Kong): cap RMB57.4m, actual nil."}]},{"direction":"investor","counterparty":"신이글라스 홀딩스(모그룹, 23.19%)","counterparty_slug":"xinyi-glass","confidence":"high","metric":{"shares":2105246835,"stake_pct":23.189},"note":"2013년 신이글라스에서 분사·상장한 태양광 전문 자회사로, 모그룹 신이글라스 홀딩스(0868.HK)가 23.19%를 보유한 최대주주다 — 규사·설비를 계열 내 거래하는 수직 관계가 원가·공급 안정의 배경이자, 두 상장사 간 관계자 거래라는 거버넌스 논점의 원천이다.","note_en":"Spun off and listed from Xinyi Glass in 2013 as its solar-focused arm, with parent Xinyi Glass Holdings (0868.HK) the largest shareholder at 23.19% — the vertical relationship that keeps silica and equipment in-group underpins cost and supply stability, while also being the source of related-party-transaction governance questions between two listed entities.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","publisher_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-06","url":"https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf","title":"신이태양광 2024 연차보고서","title_en":"Xinyi Solar Holdings — Annual Report 2024","excerpt":"Substantial shareholders: Xinyi Group (Glass) Company Limited, beneficial owner 2,105,246,835 shares = 23.189%; held via Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited / Xinyi Automobile Glass (BVI).","excerpt_en":"Substantial shareholder Xinyi Group (Glass) 2,105,246,835 shares = 23.189%, held via Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited."}]}]}