{"slug":"komatsu","name":"고마쓰","name_en":"Komatsu","ticker":"6301.T","updated_at":"2026-07-12T04:52:13.171+00:00","canonical":"https://valuechain.wiki/komatsu","citable":"밸류체인 그래프 기준 고마쓰의 직접 연결 기업은 2곳(관계 기준 공급 2·매출 0)이고, 사슬을 2차까지 넓히면 3곳에 닿는다. 링크의 근거 출처는 9건이며 그중 1차공시가 1건이다 (valuechain.wiki, 2026-07-12 기준).","citable_en":"Per the valuechain.wiki graph, Komatsu is directly linked to 2 companies (2 supply, 0 revenue relationships) and reaches 3 companies within two hops; the links are backed by 9 dated sources, 1 of them primary filings (as of 2026-07-12).","kicker":"닛케이 225 · 광산·건설기계 · 자율트럭 세계 1위","kicker_en":"Nikkei 225 · Mining & construction equipment · No.1 in autonomous trucks","lead":"굴착기·광산장비 세계 2위지만, 자율주행 초대형 트럭에서는 2008년 상용화 이래 18년 앞선 1위(누적 1,016대)라는 진짜 해자를 쥔 회사다. 2026년 3월기는 성장이 아니라 방어의 해였다 — 물량이 빠지는데 판가 인상으로 매출을 +0.7% 지켰지만 영업이익은 -13.7%로 꺾였고, 자원 사이클에 올라탄 중남미(+13.7%)·오세아니아 광산이 붕괴한 아시아 일반건설을 겨우 상쇄했다. 지금 이 노드의 관전 포인트는 FY2027 미국 관세(가이던스 영업익 -10.5%)가 판가 방어력을 얼마나 깎느냐, 그리고 광산 자동화·애프터마켓 해자가 그 하방을 얼마나 받치느냐다.","lead_en":"Komatsu is the world's No.2 in excavators and mining gear, but its real moat is autonomous ultra-class haulage, where it has led since commercializing in 2008 — an 18-year head start now at 1,016 cumulative trucks. The year ended March 2026 was about defense, not growth: with volumes falling, price increases held revenue at +0.7% but operating income still dropped 13.7%, and resource-cycle strength in Latin America (+13.7%) and Oceania barely offset the collapse in Asian general construction. The question for this node now is how much FY2027 U.S. tariffs (guidance: OP -10.5%) erode that pricing power, and how much the mining-automation and aftermarket moat cushions the downside.","segments":{"fy":2026,"note":"매출은 판가 인상으로 +0.7% 방어했지만 물량 감소와 원가 상승이 겹쳐 영업이익은 -13.7%(5,673억엔)로 꺾였다 — 성장이 아니라 마진 방어의 해였고, FY2027은 미국 관세가 이익을 한 번 더 누르는 국면(가이던스 영업익 -10.5%).","parts":[{"desc":"부문매출 3조8,060억엔(+0.2%). 중남미(+13.7%)·오세아니아 광산이 아시아(-33%) 일반건설 붕괴를 상쇄했으나, 물량 대신 판가로 버틴 탓에 이익은 -18%(4,911억엔). 자율트럭(AHS) 누적 1,016대로 광산 자동화 해자가 실적의 하방을 지지.","name":"건설·광산·유틸리티 기계"},{"desc":"매출 2,388억엔(+6.8%)·이익 +38.5%. 자동차용 대형 프레스·반도체 장비 유지보수가 끌어, 건설기계 사이클과 상관이 낮은 이익 완충 역할.","name":"산업기계·기타"},{"desc":"매출 1,261억엔(+2.4%)·이익 +24.4%. 장비 판매에 연동된 금융으로, 판가·달러 강세 국면에서 이익률이 개선.","name":"리테일 파이낸스"}],"total":"4조1,328억엔 (2026년 3월기 연결, +0.7%)"},"segments_en":{"fy":2026,"note":"Revenue held at +0.7% on price increases, but falling volume and cost inflation pushed operating income down 13.7% to ¥567.3B — a year of defending margin, not growing, with FY2027 set to press profit again on U.S. tariffs (guidance: OP -10.5%).","parts":[{"desc":"Segment revenue ¥3,806.0B (+0.2%). Latin American (+13.7%) and Oceania mining offset the collapse in Asian (-33%) general construction, but holding on price rather than volume left profit -18% (¥491.1B). A 1,016-unit autonomous-truck (AHS) fleet anchors the downside via a mining-automation moat.","name":"Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment"},{"desc":"Revenue ¥238.8B (+6.8%), profit +38.5%. Large automotive presses and semiconductor-equipment maintenance drove it — a profit buffer with low correlation to the construction cycle.","name":"Industrial Machinery & Others"},{"desc":"Revenue ¥126.1B (+2.4%), profit +24.4%. Financing tied to equipment sales, with margins improving in a strong-pricing, strong-dollar environment.","name":"Retail Finance"}],"total":"¥4,132.8B (year ended March 2026, +0.7%)"},"returns_yearly":{"2021":0.5,"2022":17.4,"2023":40.1,"2024":16.4,"2025":30.5,"2026":9.5},"return_asof":"2026-07-10","value_chain":{"leading":[],"benefiting":[{"slug":"ouster","name":"Ouster","name_en":"Ouster","tier":1,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-61.5,"2022":-83.4,"2023":-11.1,"2024":59.3,"2025":77.1,"2026":100}},{"slug":"cummins","name":"Cummins","name_en":"Cummins","tier":1,"returns_yearly":{"2021":-1.7,"2022":14.1,"2023":1.7,"2024":48.9,"2025":49.4,"2026":33.3}},{"slug":"fabrinet","name":"Fabrinet","name_en":"Fabrinet","tier":2,"returns_yearly":{"2021":52.7,"2022":8.2,"2023":48.4,"2024":15.5,"2025":107.1,"2026":3.5}}],"analysis":"고마쓰의 투자 논점은 두 개의 서로 다른 사이클이 한 회사에 겹쳐 있다는 점이다. 매출의 92%인 건설·광산기계에서 지금 이익을 지탱하는 건 자원 사이클 — 구리·철·금 가격에 연동된 중남미(+13.7%)·오세아니아 광산 수요이며, 반대로 아시아(-33%) 일반건설은 인프라 둔화로 무너졌다. FY2026 부문매출이 +0.2%에 그치고도 이익이 -18% 빠진 건, 물량이 아니라 판가로 버틴 사이클 후반의 전형이다. 최대 리스크는 FY2027 미국 관세로, 회사 스스로 영업익 -10.5%를 가이드했다 — 수요 붕괴가 아니라 정책 마진 압박이라는 점이 핵심. 그래프상 파급은 뚜렷하다: 커민스(엔진)·아우스터(라이다)가 고마쓰 캐파에 물려 있어 광산 자동화(AHS 1,016대) 투자 확대가 이들로 먼저 번지고, 리오틴토·발레·배릭 등 자원 메이저의 광산 가동률이 상류 수요를 좌우한다.","analysis_en":"Komatsu's thesis is that two different cycles sit inside one company. In construction & mining — 92% of sales — profit is currently held up by the resource cycle: Latin American (+13.7%) and Oceania mining demand tied to copper, iron-ore and gold prices, even as Asian (-33%) general construction collapses on softer infrastructure. That segment revenue rose only +0.2% yet profit fell 18% is the classic late-cycle tell of holding on price, not volume. The key risk is FY2027 U.S. tariffs, for which management itself guided operating profit down 10.5% — notably a policy-driven margin squeeze, not a demand collapse. The graph propagation is clear: Cummins (engines) and Ouster (lidar) are tied to Komatsu's capacity, so expanding mining automation (1,016 AHS trucks) ripples to them first, while the mine utilization of resource majors like Rio Tinto, Vale and Barrick sets upstream demand.","analysis_asof":"2026-05-12"},"edges":[{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"Barrick (네바다 골드마인스)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"payload_t":290,"qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value","ahs_trucks_cumulative":1016},"note":"1,000번째 울트라클래스 자율 트럭(930E-5AT, 적재 290t)이 배치된 AHS 고객(2026.4).","note_en":"AHS customer where Komatsu's 1,000th ultra-class autonomous truck (930E-5AT, 290t) was commissioned (Apr 2026).","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"고마쓰","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-04-28","url":"https://www.komatsu.jp/en/-/media/home/ir/library/financial/en/2603q4_e.pdf","title":"고마쓰 2026년 3월기 연결 결산(미국 GAAP)","title_en":"Komatsu Consolidated Business Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026 (U.S. GAAP)","excerpt":"자율주행(AHS) 트럭 누적 1,016대(2026.3말).","excerpt_en":"Cumulative AHS mining trucks reached 1,016 units as of end-March 2026."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"비히클뉴스","publisher_en":"Vehiclenews","kind":"news","lang":"ko","published_at":"2026-04-21","url":"https://www.vehiclenews.net/machinery/150/","title":"코마츠, 자율주행 광산 트럭 1,000대 달성 — 업계 최초","title_en":"Komatsu commissions 1,000th ultra-class autonomous haul truck — an industry first","excerpt":"1,000번째 자율주행 초대형 트럭(930E-5AT, 290t)을 배릭 네바다 금광에 배치.","excerpt_en":"1,000th ultra-class autonomous truck (930E-5AT, 290t payload) commissioned at Barrick's Nevada gold mine."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Komatsu","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"ir","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-04-21","url":"https://www.komatsu.com/en-us/newsroom/2026/komatsu-becomes-first-oem-to-commission-1000-ultra-class-autonomous-haul-trucks","title":"고마쓰, 울트라클래스 자율 트럭 1,000대 커미셔닝 최초 달성","title_en":"Komatsu first OEM to commission 1,000 ultra-class autonomous haul trucks","excerpt":"The 1,000th commissioned autonomous haul truck is a Komatsu 930E-5AT deployed at Barrick's Nevada Gold Mines operation.","excerpt_en":"Komatsu's 1,000th autonomous haul truck deployed at Barrick's Nevada Gold Mines."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"Ouster","counterparty_slug":"ouster","confidence":"high","metric":null,"note":"자율주행 광산장비용 라이다를 아우스터에서 조달(수백만달러 규모 계약, REV7).","note_en":"Procures lidar for autonomous mining equipment from Ouster (multimillion-dollar agreement, REV7).","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Business Wire","publisher_en":null,"kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-08","url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250508206993/en/Ouster-to-Supply-Lidar-Sensors-for-Komatsus-Suite-of-Autonomous-Offerings","title":"Ouster to Supply Lidar Sensors for Komatsu's Autonomous Offerings","title_en":null,"excerpt":"Ouster, Komatsu 자율주행 라이다 공급 계약","excerpt_en":"Ouster to supply lidar for Komatsu autonomous offerings"},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Mining.com","publisher_en":"Mining.com","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2025-05-08","url":"https://www.mining.com/web/ouster-to-supply-lidar-sensors-for-komatsus-suite-of-autonomous-offerings/","title":"Ouster to supply lidar sensors for Komatsu's autonomous offerings","title_en":"Ouster to supply lidar sensors for Komatsu's autonomous offerings","excerpt":"Ouster will supply lidar sensors for Komatsu's autonomous mining equipment through a multimillion-dollar agreement... REV7 series sensors to replace older 2D lidar systems. (수백만달러 규모 공급 계약, REV7 채택)","excerpt_en":"Ouster will supply lidar for Komatsu's autonomous mining equipment through a multimillion-dollar agreement; REV7 sensors replace older 2D lidar."}]},{"direction":"cost","counterparty":"Cummins","counterparty_slug":"cummins","confidence":"high","metric":{"qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"울트라클래스 광산 트럭(830E·930E)의 주 엔진 공급사. 2024년 발레와 3사 에탄올-디젤 듀얼퓨얼 개조 프로그램 진행.","note_en":"Primary engine supplier for ultra-class mining trucks (830E/930E); 2024 three-way ethanol-diesel Dual Fuel retrofit program with Vale.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Komatsu","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"ir","lang":"en","published_at":"2024-08-27","url":"https://www.komatsu.jp/en/newsroom/2024/20240827","title":"발레·고마쓰·커민스, 듀얼퓨얼 프로그램 출범","title_en":"Vale, Komatsu and Cummins launch Dual Fuel Program","excerpt":"Vale, Komatsu, and Cummins announce a strategic agreement to develop the Dual Fuel Program, retrofitting 830E and 930E diesel trucks with ethanol-diesel capable engines.","excerpt_en":"Strategic agreement to retrofit 830E/930E trucks with Cummins ethanol-diesel engines."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"Rio Tinto","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"필바라 철광산(브록만4·웨스트앤젤라스)의 FrontRunner AHS·830E/930E 트럭 고객.","note_en":"FrontRunner AHS and 830E/930E truck customer at Pilbara iron mines (Brockman 4, West Angelas).","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Mining Technology","publisher_en":"Mining Technology","kind":"news","lang":"en","published_at":"2023-01-01","url":"https://www.mining-technology.com/features/autonomous-haulage-systems/","title":"광산 자율 운반 시스템(AHS) 주요 제조사","title_en":"Autonomous haulage systems: leading manufacturers","excerpt":"Rio Tinto ordered 29 AHS retrofit kits for 830E trucks at its Brockman 4 mine in the Pilbara.","excerpt_en":"Rio Tinto ordered 29 AHS retrofit kits for 830E trucks at Brockman 4."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"Vale","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"카라자스 철광산의 830E/930E 트럭 고객. 2024년 커민스와 3사 듀얼퓨얼(에탄올 70%) 개조 프로그램.","note_en":"830E/930E truck customer at Carajas; 2024 Dual Fuel (up to 70% ethanol) retrofit program with Cummins.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Komatsu","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"ir","lang":"en","published_at":"2024-08-27","url":"https://www.komatsu.jp/en/newsroom/2024/20240827","title":"발레·고마쓰·커민스, 듀얼퓨얼 프로그램 출범","title_en":"Vale, Komatsu and Cummins launch Dual Fuel Program","excerpt":"The retrofitted trucks will be capable of using a fuel mix of up to 70% ethanol, reducing direct CO2 emissions by up to 70%.","excerpt_en":"Retrofitted trucks run up to 70% ethanol, cutting direct CO2 up to 70%."}]},{"direction":"investment","counterparty":"M&A (말와 포레스트·SRC 리매뉴·조이글로벌)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"joy_global_acq_usd_bn":3.7},"note":"고마쓰의 M&A는 신규 장비 물량 사이클에 덜 흔들리는 '광산·애프터마켓 해자'를 의도적으로 쌓는 축이다 — 2017년 조이글로벌 약 37억 달러 인수로 지하광산·초대형 장비를 내재화했고, 2026년 SRC렉싱턴 재제조 자산·말와 포레스트(임업)를 붙여 순환경제·부품재생 매출로 확장 중이다. 신차 판매가 꺾이는 국면일수록 리매뉴·부품·서비스가 이익률을 지탱하는 구조다.","note_en":"Komatsu's M&A deliberately builds a mining-and-aftermarket moat that is less exposed to the new-equipment volume cycle: the 2017 ~$3.7B Joy Global deal internalized underground and ultra-class equipment, and 2026 bolt-ons — SRC of Lexington's remanufacturing assets and forestry maker Malwa Forest — extend into circular-economy and parts-reman revenue. The weaker new-machine sales get, the more reman, parts and service defend the margin.","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"고마쓰","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-04-28","url":"https://www.komatsu.jp/en/-/media/home/ir/library/financial/en/2603q4_e.pdf","title":"고마쓰 2026년 3월기 연결 결산(미국 GAAP)","title_en":"Komatsu Consolidated Business Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026 (U.S. GAAP)","excerpt":"2026.2 SRC렉싱턴 리매뉴 자산 인수, 2026.4 말와 포레스트 AB 인수 완료.","excerpt_en":"Acquired SRC of Lexington reman assets (Feb 2026); completed Malwa Forest AB acquisition (Apr 2026)."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"북미·중남미·오세아니아 자원국 (건설·광산기계)","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"high","metric":{"na_jpy_bn":1047.2,"asia_jpy_bn":334.9,"latam_jpy_bn":776.9,"oceania_jpy_bn":471.6,"segment_profit_jpy_bn":491.1,"segment_revenue_jpy_bn":3806},"note":"매출의 92%가 걸린 건설·광산기계에서 지금 회사를 떠받치는 건 자원 사이클이다 — 구리·철·금 가격이 끌어올린 중남미(+13.7%)·오세아니아 광산 수요가, 인프라 둔화로 무너진 아시아(-33%)·일본(-4.6%) 일반 건설을 상쇄했다. FY2026 부문매출이 +0.2%에 그친 건 물량이 아니라 판가 인상으로 버틴 결과여서, 세그먼트이익은 오히려 -18%(원가·물량) — 전형적인 사이클 후반 신호다. 그리고 이 판가 방어력을 위협하는 게 FY2027 미국 관세(가이던스 영업익 -10.5%)다.","note_en":"In construction & mining — 92% of sales — the resource cycle is what is holding the company up: copper, iron-ore and gold prices lifted Latin American (+13.7%) and Oceania mining demand, offsetting the collapse in Asian (-33%) and Japanese (-4.6%) general construction as infrastructure softened. The segment's +0.2% came from price increases, not volume, so segment profit still fell 18% on cost and volume — a classic late-cycle signature. What threatens that pricing power is the FY2027 U.S. tariff hit (guidance: operating profit -10.5%).","sources":[{"stance":"mentions","publisher":"씨티(Citi)/컨센서스","publisher_en":"Citi / analyst consensus","kind":"research","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-05-10","url":"https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/jp:6301/forecast","title":"고마쓰(6301) 애널리스트 — 씨티 목표주가 ¥4,500(중립), 컨센서스 중립","title_en":"Komatsu (6301) analysts — Citi target ¥4,500 (Neutral); consensus Neutral","excerpt":"씨티 목표주가 ¥4,500(중립), 컨센서스 중립 — 관세·수요 둔화 반영.","excerpt_en":"Citi target ¥4,500 (Neutral); consensus Neutral, reflecting tariffs and softening demand."},{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"고마쓰","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"filing","lang":"en","published_at":"2026-04-28","url":"https://www.komatsu.jp/en/-/media/home/ir/library/financial/en/2603q4_e.pdf","title":"고마쓰 2026년 3월기 연결 결산(미국 GAAP)","title_en":"Komatsu Consolidated Business Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2026 (U.S. GAAP)","excerpt":"건설·광산기계 매출 3조8,060억엔·세그먼트이익 4,911억엔. 지역별 외부매출(북미 1조471·중남미 7,769·오세아니아 4,716).","excerpt_en":"Construction/Mining revenue ¥3,806.0B, segment profit ¥491.1B; regional external sales (NA ¥1,047.2B, LatAm ¥776.9B, Oceania ¥471.6B)."}]},{"direction":"revenue","counterparty":"Anglo American","counterparty_slug":null,"confidence":"mid","metric":{"qualifier":"confirmed_no_disclosed_value"},"note":"칠레 로스브론세스 구리 광산 AHS 고객(약 62대 930E 계획 보도).","note_en":"AHS customer at Los Bronces copper mine, Chile (~62 930E trucks planned).","sources":[{"stance":"confirms","publisher":"Komatsu","publisher_en":"Komatsu","kind":"ir","lang":"en","published_at":"2022-01-01","url":"https://www.komatsu.com/en-us/newsroom/2022/komatsu-to-deploy-autonomous-haulage-system-at-los-bronces-copper-mine","title":"고마쓰, 로스브론세스 구리 광산에 AHS 배치","title_en":"Komatsu to deploy AHS at Los Bronces copper mine","excerpt":"Komatsu to deploy Autonomous Haulage System at Anglo American's Los Bronces copper mine.","excerpt_en":"Komatsu AHS deployment at Anglo American's Los Bronces."}]}]}